Still waiting for a Pacific Century

By David Polhemus
Advertiser Editorial Writer

Has Hawai'i been attempting to hitch its wagon to a phenomenon that may never happen?

The 1980s were filled with images of Japan as the next economic superpower, while the 1990s gave way to dreams of a huge Chinese consumer market — 1.3 billion Buicks, or iMacs.

As Asian wealth and influence grew, Hawai'i tried harder to benefit from its tourists and as a "crossroads of the Pacific," salted with acronyms like PBEC and ADB.

Now just a couple of years into this highly touted century, it's hard to miss Bank of Hawaii, recoiling like a finger from a hot stove. Many thought the name it embraced (temporarily, it turns out), Pacific Century, was either too grandiose or better suited to some obscure think tank.

Still, few cheerleaders had mounted the bandwagon of the Pacific Century as enthusiastically as this newspaper. Personally, I think it will yet come to pass, in one important form or another, but certainly not the way people envisioned it 10 or 20 years ago.

For one thing, the East Wind from Asia isn't gusting yet. Japan may never realize its potential as an economic superpower and Asian leader. Its aging population saps its incentive to grow; its baroque politics saps its will.

China could become a great power a decade or two hence — or not, as growing rich-poor disparity and dislocation from restructuring threaten stability.

C. Fred Bergsten, a trade official under President Carter, writes in the Washington Post that the only economic superpowers today, the United States and united Europe, had better get cracking and form a new leadership entity: G-2.

Never mind the so-called Group of Seven Plus One: Japan and Russia don't measure up, Bergsten argues, and it's time to wean ourselves with playing one European state off against the other. Writes Bergsten: "The United States simply cannot dominate the world economy as it does global security affairs, and Europe is its only potential partner, in terms of both economic capability and cultural compatibility."

And that, he concludes, forms the basis for what he calls "The Trans-Atlantic Century." Gosh, weren't the 19th and 20th centuries trans-Atlantic centuries?

A few years ago the American military was moving more assets to the Pacific in anticipation of greater need in the new century. Now Washington is preoccupied with Southwest Asia — perhaps overly so, as China continues to covet Taiwan and a million troops face off in Korea.

The attraction of Southwest Asia — oil — will lose its allure to hydrogen power in a decade or so, while East Asia's potential remains enormous, albeit with outlines unclear.

Hawai'i and Japan both have a lot going for them. We have beauty, aloha and cross-cultural ties. Japan is still hard-working and inventive. But both have seen the most prosperous decade in history pass us by.

When the sun finally rises on a Pacific Century — better late than never! — the question is whether it will shine on us.

David Polhemus has traveled frequently in Asia. Reach him at dpolhemus@honoluluadvertiser.com.