Posted on: Friday, May 10, 2002

EDITORIAL
China: Will it be run by retirees?

Much was made in his recent U.S. visit of the unknown background of Hu Jintao, by all accounts the designated next leader of China. People wonder about his persona and principles, but a more pertinent question, "Will Hu Really Govern China?" was posed by a recent Los Angeles Times commentary by Phillip C. Saunders and Yuan Jing-dong.

"When Deng Xiaoping returned to power for the third time in the late 1970s," explain Saunders and Yuan, "he tried to increase political stability in China by institutionalizing the political system and the leadership succession process.

"When serious policy differences emerged between Deng's generation of revolutionaries and the younger, more bureaucratic leaders, Deng simply sacked the younger leaders."

Thus, it was Deng and the other aging retirees who ordered the troops into Tiananmen Square in 1989, and not the titular officeholders.

Although Jiang Zemin has agreed to give up the presidency and the party chairmanship, he may remain as chairman of the Central Military Commission, by which he would maintain substantial clout.

So whether Hu is a reformer or not may not be the right question. The real question is whether he and his cohorts will have a genuine opportunity to lead.