Posted on: Sunday, May 12, 2002

COMMENTARY
Raising 'mystery' boat may be mistake

By Mark J. Valencia and Yoshihisa Amae

Japan is leaning toward salvaging the "mystery" boat which sank in China's 230-mile Exclusive Economic Zone on Dec. 22 after being chased and fired upon by Japanese coast guard vessels.

But raising the boat and thus revealing its origin and purpose for all the world to see could ruffle political and security relations in northeast Asia.

Already Japan's violent pursuit of the suspected North Korean boat in the East China Sea has sparked both domestic and international controversy. Domestic opposition and foreign critics have questioned Japan's right to use force on the high seas and are using this incident to argue against expanding Japan's military activities.

Indeed, although both China and North Korea have denied any connection with the vessel, China has expressed concern with Japan's use of force and called its actions "rash" and "indiscreet," while North Korea has called the incident "brutal piracy and unpardonable terrorism."

But Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is using this very same incident to justify plans to strengthen the military and expand its geographic and operational authority. Indeed, this may be why he favors raising the boat — to publicly prove it was North Korean and thus that North Korea is a "threat" to Japan. Perhaps not coincidentally, it would also help divert public attention from the sluggishness of his economic reforms and perhaps boost his sagging popularity.

Government-sponsored legislation to be introduced to the Diet would allow Japan to use force in similar situations. But Japan's legal sanctioning of the use of force in its economic zone could lead to unintended incidents with its other maritime neighbors — Russia, South Korea and China. The Japanese coast guard has frequently detained boats from all three countries for fishing illegally in its economic zone and such boats could on occasion be mistaken for "spy" vessels.

The sunken ship rests on China's claimed continental shelf in about 300 feet of water. In late February, the Japanese coast guard explored the sunken vessel with remote-controlled cameras. The objective was to determine its name, characteristics, degree of damage, and whether and how it can be safely raised. Divers and submersibles completed a further investigation of the vessel on May 7. The salvage operation is planned for late May, when the seas become calm.

But why raise the vessel? Japan (and the United States) say there may be much intelligence to be gained from the ship — such as the characteristics of North Korean spy vessels, chemical or biological weaponry, and military codes and encryption systems. However, it would seem that divers and manned and unmanned submersibles could obtain this information. If so, raising the vessel would be more for "show" and political purposes.

Indeed, raising and publicly identifying the origin and mission of the boat could have international political implications. Accordingly, China has been very cautious regarding Japan's proposal to raise the boat.

In fact, it initially opposed the plan and warned Japan to refrain from any action that would "escalate or complicate the situation." To underscore its concern, China sent vessels to the site to monitor Japan's exploratory activities. And on April 12 in Hainan, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji told Koizumi that although he understood Japan's desire to salvage the vessel, he had to take Chinese domestic "opposition" into consideration.

Japan was awaiting China's final approval to proceed when, on April 21, Koizumi made a surprise visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, which includes war criminals among its honored war dead. China responded by postponing a visit to Beijing by Japan's Defense Agency chief and a scheduled mid-May visit to Tokyo of Chinese warships. But in a remarkable reversal of position, China has now agreed to allow Japan to proceed, at least with its underwater investigation. This approval came after Japan acknowledged China's jurisdiction in its economic zone, submitted an operational plan, met the requirements of Chinese domestic law and the Law of the Sea, and assured China that it will protect the marine environment, and report to it the results of the underwater investigation. Chinese ships will monitor the operation. Presumably, if all goes well — and there are no further political snags — Chinese approval of the salvage itself will follow.

But China's concern may go deeper than Japan's activities in its economic zone. Despite its denials, China — or Chinese — may have been involved in the boat's mission. U.S. satellite photos reportedly spotted a look-alike boat docked in China's Zhoushan naval port before the incident. If China is seen to have had a hand in this affair, even behind the scenes, this could produce an anti-China backlash in Japan. But China knows that if it opposes Japan's attempts to raise the boat, this could have the same effect.

Even if it turns out to clearly be a North Korean spy or smuggling vessel, this will harden Japan's stance against North Korea and justify a more robust military and diplomatic posture. But any increased pressure on fragile and vulnerable North Korea would not be in China's interest.

Indeed, China prefers to have communist North Korea survive as a buffer between it and capitalist South Korea.

The United States — always a player — is sending mixed signals.

On the one hand, it is pushing Japan to proceed with the salvage. At one point, it reportedly even offered to provide naval boats to guard Japan's salvage attempt. If realized, this certainly would have angered China.

Indeed, under strong questioning by China, Japan denied that the United States would assist Japan in salvaging the ship.

The United States is apparently convinced that the boat was a North Korean spy or smuggling vessel. Thus demonstrating to the world North Korea's "evil" intent would justify the U.S. administration's hard line and encourage Japan's support in any action the United States may be contemplating against North Korea.

However, it now appears that rapprochement between North Korea and the United States — and with Japan — may be just around the corner. Raising the boat and thus generating renewed anti-North Korean sentiment could derail this new initiative. Indeed, South Korean Foreign Minister Choi Sung-hong has expressed concern that the issue could hamper improvement of relations between Japan and North Korea.

Clearly, Japan needs to consider much more than technical factors in making its decision on raising this boat. Perhaps it would be better for all concerned to let a sleeping ship lie.

Mark J. Valencia is a senior fellow and Yoshihisa Amae is a degree fellow at the East-West Center.