COMMENTARY
Democrats ready to circle wagons
By Bob Dye
Kailua-based writer and historian
Republicans sense they are on the road back to political power. The governorship is their primary goal in the 2002 election, but they hope to make significant gains in the Legislature as well. After a narrow loss in the 1998 governor's race and small but important gains in the state House in 2000, Republicans believe they now have the momentum to collapse the Democratic wave.
Advertiser library photo • May 4, 2002
Therefore, no state convention since 1959 has been as important to Democrats as the one next week in Waikiki.
Linda Lingle makes her way through the crowd of delegates at the Hawai'i Republican Party convention at the Sheraton Waikiki Hotel. Lingle, former mayor of Maui County, is heavily favored to win the Republican primary for governor.
Times have changed. It was Democrats who sensed victory in the 1959 statehood special election. They had taken control of the Legislature in 1954, and despite a glitch, had momentum. Although the governorship escaped them, in '59 they sent Oren Long to the U.S. Senate and Daniel Inouye, in a landslide victory, to the U.S. House. Later elected to the Senate, Inouye never left Washington.
Led by Inouye, the entire Hawai'i congressional delegation will be in Honolulu next weekend to rally the party faithful. Their presence is a powerful reminder that Democrats have dominated the delegation since statehood.
No Hawai'i Republican has been in the Senate since Hiram Fong was elected in the special election of 1959 and served until he retired in 1977, and none has been in the House of Representatives since Pat Saiki was elected in 1986 and served two terms.
With today's Republicans virtually conceding the two congressional seats this year, the Democrats certainly will retain their power in Washington.
U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie has no challenger in the primary. But five Republicans and a Libertarian have pulled papers for that office. So it is likely he may have at least token opposition in the general. And that's all the competition he needs to justify building a huge war chest.
The recent reapportionment of the two congressional districts helped Abercrombie. He picked up heavily Democratic precincts in Waipahu when his district was expanded almost to Wahiawa. Any Republican who opposes him in the general has an impossibly tough uphill fight.
Nor does, as yet, U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink have opposition in the Democratic primary. For a time, Democratic state Senate Vice President Coleen Hanabusa considered entering the race for the nomination, but has since decided to seek re-election to her Senate seat. So in the general, it appears Mink will be opposed by plucky Republican Bob McDermott, who is receiving precious little help from his party.
Advertiser library photo
Other Republicans, a Libertarian and a nonpartisan, have pulled nomination papers, but none has filed as of this writing. Nonpartisan Kaua'i Mayor Maryanne Kusaka, a Republican, earlier had considered seeking the nomination, but is now looking instead at other options. She would have been a significant challenger.
Democratic Sen. Daniel Inouye heads the state's congressional delegation to Washington, having served since winning election to the House in 1959.
By not sending strong contenders against Abercrombie and Mink, the GOP has freed the two popular members of Congress to campaign for others on the Democratic ticket. Some of their workers and donors also may choose to help other Democrats as well.
It is the governor's race that is proving to be the most popular with prospective candidates. Already pulling papers for the top job are 13 hopefuls. And three heavy hitters — Republican Linda Lingle and Democrats D.G. "Andy" Anderson and Jeremy Harris — are poised to do so, although there is continued speculation that Harris may decide to remain at Honolulu Hale. Democrat Ed Case and Republican John Carroll already have filed.
Members of the Hawai'i delegation are anything but peas in a pod, save for three of them being senior citizens. They've often opposed each other over public policy and more. Inouye and Mink battled each other for a congressional nomination in the June 1959 primary. Inouye prevailed.
Patsy Takemoto Mink, however, has been the most mercurial and, therefore, the most fun to watch. After serving in the Legislature, she first went to the U.S. House 40 years ago. A decade later, she was a candidate in Oregon's Democratic presidential primary. She lost, even in that liberal state.
Along the way, she was elected to the Honolulu City Council and chaired that body.
In 1990, the liberal Mink was returned to Congress, where she has remained. As each election approaches there is talk that she will retire, and if not retire, that she can be beaten. But once again, she is running for re-election. The heavy odds are that she will be returned to Congress.
Inouye, the de-facto head of the Democratic Party in Hawai'i, is one of the most powerful members of the Senate. Routinely maligned at home and abroad as the King of Pork, he is routinely returned to office on that very plank. Now that sugar and pineapple are nearly gone, after tourism Inouye is our major industry. Voters may wonder if that will continue to be if Linda Lingle or John Carroll are elected to the governorship. Probably so.
But Inouye's effort might become focused on the University of Hawai'i, now under the leadership of his friend Evan Dobelle. When and if Inouye retires, the GOP has no one in place to take his seat.
Sen. Dan Akaka has to be one of the nicest people in Washington and here. The first Native Hawaiian to serve in the U.S. Senate, he represents the Aloha State in most important ways. Ably assisted by top aide Jimmy Sakai, he is there for as long as he chooses to be. The GOP has groomed no one to challenge him.
Inouye and Akaka, neither of whom are up for re-election this year, speak to convention delegates on Saturday, and Mink and Abercrombie, both of whom are up for re-election, speak on Sunday.
Delegates will be listening most carefully to Inouye. Will he give a clue as to who he likes for governor? Anderson? Case? Harris?
A persistent rumor is that Inouye made a deal with Harris: If Harris aborted his bid to unseat Ben Cayetano for the gubernatorial nomination in 1998, Harris would get the support from Inouye he needs to beat Lingle in 2002.
If so, pay-off day is here. Read his lips.
