Updated at 11:11 a.m., Friday, November 8, 2002

Surfers push for return of NOAA expert's forecasts

By Jan TenBruggencate
Advertiser Staff Writer

Hawai‘i residents who work and play around the ocean were growing increasingly angry yesterday over the decision to pull off the Web one of the most popular — and many say most accurate — surf forecasts for Hawaiian waters.

Reach Jan TenBruggencate at jant@honoluluadvertiser.com or (808) 245-3074.

Officials of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were scheduled today to announce a new surf forecasting Web site—one designed in part by a committee of ocean experts.

But surfers and other ocean users worry that it won’t be as valuable as the site with predictions by Pat Caldwell, a liaison officer with the NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center.

Caldwell will be involved in the new forecasting service, but no other details were available before today’s press conference.

NOAA officials insisted on a strict information blackout, and even several members of the new technical advisory group said they could not comment before the official announcement.

A core issue with Caldwell’s Web site apparently was that he listed two kinds of wave heights—both the wave face measurement that the National Weather Service prefers, and a “local” wave height calculation, normally about half the wave face.

But another issue was that Caldwell’s predictions sometimes differed from those of the weather service, and many considered them superior.

“I work in the marine construction business and used his information every day,” said Doug Piper of Honolulu. “I hate to see a valuable service torpedoed by a bunch of bureaucrats.”

Bret Lynch of Hawai‘i Kai said that surfers relied on Caldwell’s report, and without it, they are left with a range of contradictory surf reports from other sources.

“I cannot understanding how the confusing reports and forecasts are somehow making things safer,” he said.

Ian Yee of Nu‘uanu said that if officials are concerned about wave heights, they could simply remove any reference to local wave heights and use wave face heights.

“Most importantly, the public has loudly spoken that the site is useful, promotes safety, and is needed. They need to put it back up in its entirety since they are there to serve the public,” Yee said.

“Pat's site is already awesome, I’m not sure how they can improve or make it stronger since they haven’t been able to demonstrate it in the past.”

“Pat Caldwell is the best that’s out there,” said Patrick Ibbs, a Kaua‘i surfer.

When Caldwell’s Web site was shut down last week, oceangoers who logged in found a terse message.

Here is part of the message that was still on this morning at Caldwell’s Web site, ilikai.soest.hawaii.edu/HILO/surfforc.html:

“The main reason this site has been removed is due to public safety for all of the people who go to the beach. Between 1993-1997, 238 people drowned, both locals and tourists. Public safety is paramount to try to mitigate the number of people killed or who suffer serious injuries each year. It has been shown many times that if the public hears a consistent message regarding hazardous weather conditions, they take appropriate protective actions. However, if the public receives conflicting messages, they disregard the conflicting messages and do not take the appropriate actions. This creates a highly dangerous situation.

“Therefore, to avoid conflicting information to the public and for public safety, this site has been terminated.”

While Caldwell has been off-line, surfers and other people who use the ocean are relying on the range of other services available to judge water conditions, and they use a range of wave measurements.

Other services include: Surfline at www.surfline.com; Surf News Network at www.surf-news.com; and Maui Weather Today at hawaiiweathertoday.com/mwt/index.html.

There are also private services such as Bruce Pleas’ e-mail and fax surf prediction service, Surf Report Hawai‘i. Pleas can be reached at hisurf@aloha.net.

The National Weather Service says its new “collaborative and improved standardized surf zone forecast for Hawai‘i” will be guided by a technical advisory panel made up of a number of oceanographers, Civil Defense and other government officials, meteorologists and others in the Hawai‘i ocean community.