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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, November 10, 2002

INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS
How would you invest $25,000 in today's market?

Advertiser Staff

STARTING WITH $25,000 ON SEPT. 12

We asked the financial professionals listed below what they would recommend to a theoretical investor who inherits $25,000 and wants to put it into stocks, mutual funds or bonds to increase the value over the next three months.

They selected five investments of $5,000 each on Sept. 12. The chart shows the value of those investments, as of the close of the market on Friday. They are only allowed to make changes once per month. The rules put limits on the professionals that would not normally apply, and their performance must be viewed with that in mind.

Investing over a short period is risky, and this is not intended to suggest these investments are appropriate for any individual.

The participants were asked to give a comment on their picks and what they would do differently if the investments were for the long term. The date the comments were submitted is included in the chart.

Before investing in any security, it's important to evaluate your current financial situation and your long-term goals. In many cases, reducing credit-card debt or other debt would be a better use of any windfall.

The selections are those of the money managers listed and not The Honolulu Advertiser. The results do not include commission charges.

Larry Goeas, who participated in the earlier columns, has asked not to be included in future columns.

If you have any questions or comments, please contact: David Butts, assistant business editor, 535-2453 or dbutts@honoluluadvertiser.com.

• • •

Roberta Lee-Driscoll
Certified financial planner
1000 Bishop St., Suite 509
Honolulu, HI 96813
524-6823
Explaining the picks

You get the face value of a bond on the date the bond matures.On the maturity dates — one, two, five and 10 years from now — I will get $5,000 for each note. Between now and maturity date the price of the bonds will fluctuate daily. (Oct. 25)

Long-term strategy

One method of diversifying your risk is to buy mutual funds. You can buy stock or bond mutual funds or a combination of both. Mutual funds allow you to buy many stocks or many bonds instead of just a few. There are over 10,000 mutual funds for you to choose from. (Oct. 25)

Alan Matsuda
Certified financial planner
606 Eaea Place
Honolulu, HI 96825
395-1255
Explaining the picks

Rumblings of war and the Japanese buying lots of gold have fueled a gold rally.  SGGDX ranks in the top 1 percent in its category for one-, three- and five-year periods. In the 1&Mac221; months before this game started, it gained 31 percent.  Alas, it plummeted 17 percent thereafter. (Nov. 8)

Long-term strategy

The hydrogen fuel cell is developing fast and may replace the car engine within a decade or sooner, ending our reliance on foreign oil. Its exhaust is only water.  All major automakers are investing heavily in new technologies, certain that a revolution will occur. Risky, so don't invest too much or too early.  (Oct. 31)

Jim Rogers
Brookstreet Securities Corp.
419 South St., No. 121
Honolulu, HI 96813
524-8696
Explaining the picks

This week was especially volatile for the stock market. The mutual funds that I chose for this exercise have exceptional managers. Even so, the declines in the markets have proven to be a difficult obstacle to achieving positive performance. Should equities have a year-end rally, I believe these funds will perform well.
(Nov. 8)

Long-term strategy

Last week was packed with developments that impacted the markets greatly. They were an election, an interest rate cut (larger than I expected), and a UN resolution on Iraq. Talk of deflation (decline in general price levels, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit) is somewhat worrisome. (Nov. 8)

Bob L. Slate
Slate Financial Services
45-315 Lilipuna Road, A303
Kane'ohe, HI 96744
263-7676
Explaining the picks

Earnings is the key driver of any market. We cannot control corporate earnings, but price dictates action. The key question going through the minds of investors are, is this really an upside rally or a bear hug? We are in a short to intermediate term bull phase of a secular bear market right now. Investors willing to buy in an oversold market have control of the reigns right now. (Oct. 25)

Long-term strategy

We are seeing a dramatic shift in positive market sentiment. A good phrase to follow is "below the 200 day moving average, bears rule." There will be a price entry that will allow appropriate risk suitable for the individual investor’s needs. For long term investors, price timing isn't that crucial and buying quality investments at fair prices should be the course of action. (Oct. 25)

Colin K. Watanabe
Branch manager
National Securities Corp.
1001 Bishop St.
Pacific Tower 1530
Honolulu, HI 96813
(808) 522-9000
Explaining the picks

CSCO is very well-managed, maintaining healthy margins of more than 65%. COST announced 2% same store sales increases for October. It remains the best positioned retailer in its market segment. GE: Analysts speculate that the company may have to provide up to $5 billion to its financial services division. TMEN: continues to trade lower as it awaits acceptance of its technologies. (Nov. 8)

Long-term strategy

The larger-than-expected 1/2 percent interest rate cut is seen by many as a sign that the U.S. economy is vulnerable. Employment and consumer confidence are in fact weakening. Howver, Fed policy, inflation and productivity remain accomodative. I am cautiously optimistic.   Barring any geopolitical surprises, I expect to see economic growth sometime in mid-2003. (Nov. 8)

Mario Yim
Raymond James
1221 Kapiolani Blvd., Suite 6E
Honolulu, HI 96814
591-9088
Explaining the picks

This relatively quick rise in market values in the last few weeks have obviously hurt the performance of my bond fund and market short fund selection. Despite this, we feel still feel these holdings will continue to do well as a defensive investment. (Nov. 1)

Long-term strategy

There is still more downside risk in the overall market. We're in a trading range in which active traders would probably do better than the buy and hold investor. Obviously, the limited monthly trading restrictions in this contest prevents active trading. If this is the bottom, then a retest of the recent rise will be needed. There will be ample opportunities for long investors to buy in at lower levels. (Nov. 1)