Republican turnout helped carry Lingle

By Lynda Arakawa
Advertiser Capitol Bureau

A notably strong voter turnout in traditional Republican districts and lower turnout in some Democratic strongholds contributed to Linda Lingle's victory in the governor's race, according to a district-by-district analysis of the gubernatorial election.

The election results show that the highest voter turnouts were in the largely Republican districts in East Honolulu from Diamond Head to Hawai'i Kai. Lingle won easily in those areas, as well as Windward O'ahu, another traditionally Republican area.

At the same time, voter turnout was lower in some districts that heavily favored the Democrat, Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono.

"Mazie's people stayed home," said Hawai'i Pacific University political science associate professor Gregory Gaydos. "They couldn't bring themselves to vote for a Republican, but they weren't going to vote for her, either."

While Lingle was able to dominate in areas with high voter turnout, she received nearly 2,000 votes less statewide than she got in 1998, when she lost to Gov. Ben Cayetano. Cayetano received about 25,000 more votes in the 1998 election than Hirono, which strongly suggests voters who have typically backed Democrats stayed away from the polls.

That is highly disturbing to the Democrats, who had expected that those who have historically voted for their candidates would pull through for Hirono.

A review of the district results also shows that Lingle gained 14 of the 16 districts that supported Ed Case, who nearly beat Hirono in the Democratic primary. That was no surprise to political observers, who said Case's campaign message for "change" appealed to many Republicans and independent voters.

Hirono had large support in the Hilo area on the Big Island, which had relatively higher turnout than other districts. But Democratic strongholds like Kalihi and Waipahu — which have a large percentage of Filipino American voters who have historically voted Democratic — had relatively low turnout.

Both Lingle and Hirono made special efforts to attract Filipino voters this year.

Don Clegg, a political consultant who polled for Democratic candidates this year, said while Filipino American voters "were very strong for Mazie, they don't vote in high proportions," he said. "So she doesn't even break even. If the (voter turnout) is low, the impact of the high support is lost."

The traditionally Democratic Pearl City-Pacific Palisades district had the highest voter turnout in the state in 1998, with 78 percent of registered voters showing up at the polls.

The Pearl City district still chose Hirono this year, but only about 57 percent of those registered actually voted. (Districts were redrawn last year, but the Pearl City district remained largely intact.)

"The Hirono campaign was based on keeping the turnout low and bringing out the Democratic base," said University of Hawai'i political science professor Neal Milner. "They wanted the right people to turn out and they ran a kind of campaign that wasn't going to excite a lot of people to turn out. They miscalculated and they couldn't get their own people to come out."

The numbers also show that while ethnic voting patterns appear to hold on the Neighbor Islands, some O'ahu voters bucked the trend in favor of Lingle. In 1998, only Maui and the Big Island went for Lingle. This year, Lingle won every island but Kaua'i.

Neighbor Island districts with a majority of Asian Americans tended to back Hirono, while largely Caucasian districts favored Lingle.

But on O'ahu, Lingle won several middle-class to affluent districts with largely Asian American populations. For example, more residents in the Kaimuki-'Aina Haina-Kuli'ou'ou district — which is 63 percent Asian American — voted for Lingle over Hirono.

Lingle also dominated in the Mililani-Mililani Mauka district, which is 55 percent Asian American.

Hirono, on the other hand, mainly took Asian-dominated districts that are less affluent, such as Kalihi, Pearl City, Waipahu and Wahiawa.

Clegg said voting behavior is probably linked more to affluence than to ethnicity. But he acknowledged it may also suggest Lingle made some inroads among Asian American voters.

Clegg said he has noticed an erosion of Japanese American support for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate this year.

"Mazie was not getting the Democrats' normal share of the Japanese voters and that's due to the younger voter," he said.

Clegg used the analogy of the Democratic Party being a family doctor that has treated Hawai'i voters for years.

"Mom and pop and grandpa thought the family doctor was fine, but the younger kids wanted a second opinion," he said.

"It's not because the other candidate is Republican, it's because the Democratic candidate is not giving them the things that they want," he said. "People gave Democrats a chance, and they weren't fulfilled and so this time they didn't come back."

The district results also show that more than a dozen districts that elected Democratic candidates to the state House also chose Lingle over Hirono.

The split in the votes may mean voters paid more attention to the individual candidates rather than to the political party they belonged to, Clegg said.

"People did not vote just for party this time," he said. "When it all came down in the end there weren't enough people voting just on the party. ... It boils down to this year (being) more of a contest between candidates rather than a contest between parties."

Reach Lynda Arakawa at larakawa@honoluluadvertiser.com or at 525-8070.