44 candidates seeking Mink's Congress seat

By James Gonser
Advertiser Staff Writer

In just 45 days, voters in the 2nd Congressional District will be back at the polls for the second time since Nov. 5, this time to choose a successor to the late U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink from a field of 16 Republicans, 12 Democrats, 13 nonpartisans, two Greens and one Libertarian candidate.

With only six weeks to mount a campaign before the Jan. 4 special election and the vote following so closely on the heels of the Christmas and New Year's holidays, political observers expect a low voter turnout, making strong name recognition a key factor in who will capture the winner-take-all contest.

Several influential politicians who were thought to be in the running opted out, perhaps sparing the two major parties the political bloodbath that had been feared. The field that remains is crowded, but now it includes only a handful of state heavyweights looking to make the leap to the national political scene.

Among them are former state Rep. Ed Case, former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi, state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, state Rep. Barbara Marumoto and former state Rep. Bob McDermott. They were joined yesterday by Matt Matsunaga, the former state senator and failed Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor.

"The thing that makes it tempting for all candidates is that it is such a crapshoot," said University of Hawai'i political science professor Neal Milner. "Everybody sees it as a golden opportunity with a relatively low down side. If you lose, you only have to spend a month campaigning."

The state's "resign to run" law does not affect federal elections, so candidates in office have nothing to lose by running.

The special election was triggered when Hawai'i voters re-elected Mink in the general election over Republican challenger McDermott to represent rural O'ahu and the Neighbor Islands.

A special election will be held Nov. 30 to fill the last five weeks of Mink's present term in Congress. Her husband, John Mink, is a candidate for that position along with 37 others.

The Jan. 4 special election will determine who will fill that seat in the 108th Congress.

Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono, former City Councilman Mufi Hannemann and former Gov. John Waihee were widely considered strong congressional candidates, but they did not file. Waihee said he chose not to enter because too many Democrats in the race could divide the vote and result in a Republican victory.

The last special election for Congress was held in 1990 when U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie first took office, but that vote was held in conjunction with the primary election. That makes the two votes for the Mink seat the first independently held federal special elections in Hawai'i since statehood, said Hawai'i Chief Elections Officer Dwayne Yoshina, who estimated the cost of holding the elections to be between $1.3 million and $1.7 million each.

Both major political parties said they do not plan to endorse a specific candidate, with so many qualified people running.

However, Republican Party Chairman Micah Kane said his party would support a candidate if a clear front-runner emerges, adding that a Republican has a good chance of winning this election. Only two Hawai'i Republicans have served in Congress: Pat Saiki in the House from 1986 to 1990, and Hiram Fong in the U.S. Senate from 1959 to 1976.

"We've got a shot. We have some credible candidates," Kane said. "The voting history in CD2 (2nd Congressional District) shows there is opportunity for us. Our philosophy of home rule across the Neighbor Island counties is attractive to a lot of constituents."

Kane said with so many candidates, the person drawing 20,000 votes could take the election. More than 440,000 registered voters live in the district and about 178,000 people, or about 40 percent, voted in the 2nd Congressional race during the general election.

With only 45 days to campaign, whoever can raise the most money and get their volunteers knocking on doors has the best chance to win, Kane said.

"Money will play a major factor in this race, unfortunately," Kane said. "You're not going to have the time to get out and canvass the district like we would want to. The campaign workers are looking to have a break after the (general) election, (so) it will fall on the candidates to rally their troops."

Former Democratic legislator Jim Shon, a veteran observer of state politics, said a good voter turnout is unlikely in a special election, especially so close to the holidays. Shon estimates a turnout of about 25 percent.

'We had a special election for the 1978 Constitutional Convention and only 34 percent of the registered voters showed up," Shon said. "And that was in a time of enormous community activism. Given the usual distractions around the holidays, penetrating the voters' consciousness is not going to be the easiest thing. People are pretty well burned out on political stuff."

The primary issues in the election include federal recognition of Native Hawaiians, homeland security and economic development. There are too many candidates to hold a single debate to discuss the issues, so it is likely that name recognition will win the day, Milner said.

"If you are an established candidate, you run on your past record and remind people of things you have done," Milner said. Those who are not well known "have to run single-issue campaigns."

But that works against them because there is "no one issue in Hawai'i politics that appears to be so burning that somebody can jump in on it and successfully mobilize people around it," he said.

Democratic Party chairwoman Lorraine Akiba said it is important that the congressional seat remain Democratic.

"I think it is important just because of the issues facing Congress — war with Iraq, the domestic economic picture and billion-dollar deficit, programs being cut and homeland security," Akiba said. "If people want to see (Patsy Mink's) type of leadership, courage and vision continue, they need to vote for the Democrats."

Reach James Gonser at jgonser@honoluluadvertiser.com or 535-2431.

Correction: Residents of the 2nd Congressional District will vote in January for the second time since Nov. 5. Because of a reporter’s error, a previous version of this story was incorrect about how many elections have been held.