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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, November 24, 2002

INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS
How would you invest $25,000 in today's market?

Advertiser Staff

STARTING WITH $25,000 ON SEPT. 12

We asked the financial professionals listed below what they would recommend to a theoretical investor who inherits $25,000 and wants to put it into stocks, mutual funds or bonds to increase the value over the next three months.

They selected five investments of $5,000 each on Sept. 12. The chart shows the value of those investments, as of the close of the market on Friday. They are only allowed to make changes once per month. The rules put limits on the professionals that would not normally apply, and their performance must be viewed with that in mind.

Investing over a short period is risky, and this is not intended to suggest these investments are appropriate for any individual.

The participants were asked to give a comment on their picks and what they would do differently if the investments were for the long term. The date the comments were submitted is included in the chart.

Before investing in any security, it's important to evaluate your current financial situation and your long-term goals. In many cases, reducing credit-card debt or other debt would be a better use of any windfall.

The selections are those of the money managers listed and not The Honolulu Advertiser. The results do not include commission charges.

Larry Goeas, who participated in the earlier columns, has asked not to be included in future columns.

If you have any questions or comments, please contact: David Butts, assistant business editor, 535-2453 or dbutts@honoluluadvertiser.com.

• • •

Roberta Lee-Driscoll
Certified financial planner
1000 Bishop St., Suite 509
Honolulu, HI 96813
524-6823
Explaining the picks

Last week the Feds lowered interest rates. While this usually raises the value of the bonds it does create re-investment risk for current bond holders. Reinvestment risk is the possibility that your cash flow (bond income) will not be re-invested at the same rate of return or interest rate as your current investment. (Nov. 15)

Long-term strategy

One method of diversifying your risk is to buy mutual funds. You can buy stock or bond mutual funds or a combination of both. Mutual funds allow you to buy many stocks or many bonds instead of just a few. There are over 10,000 mutual funds for you to choose from. (Oct. 25)

Alan Matsuda
Certified financial planner
606 Eaea Place
Honolulu, HI 96825
395-1255
Explaining the picks

VIPSX is a TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) intermediate-term bond fund, and it is riding the wave of TIPS's immense popularity. VIPSX is up a whopping 13.6percent this year alone & ranks in the top 1 percent in its category.  Such big returns aren't sustainable so sell sometime soon. TIPS aren't recommended for a taxable account. (Nov. 21)

Long-term strategy

Avoid long-term bonds, even for long-term investing, because their share prices fluctuate wildly when interest rates rise and fall as they inevitably will. Between September 1998 and December 1999, Vanguard's Long-Term Bond Index fund shares plunged over 15%. Instead, pick no-load (no sales charge) intermediate-term or short-term bond funds with low expenses. (Nov. 21)

Jim Rogers
Brookstreet Securities Corp.
419 South St., No. 121
Honolulu, HI 96813
524-8696
Explaining the picks

These picks were made within the boundaries, guidelines and restrictions that are specific to this hypothetical. Even with careful consideration given to the significant downside risk inherent in short-term investing, it is impractical to assume any rate of return. For three months, a certificate of deposit would be more appropriate. (Nov. 22)

Long-term strategy

Long-term strategy should be unique to your particular needs, requirements,risk tolerance and time horizon. Portfolio diversification is important to minimize risk. Over concentration into any one asset class may increase capital risk. Thanks to the readers that have called to discuss the picks and their individual investment situations. (Nov. 22)

Bob L. Slate
Slate Financial Services
45-315 Lilipuna Road, A303
Kane'ohe, HI 96744
263-7676
Explaining the picks

We are encountering resistance near the September highs. I believe the markets should retrace some of it's gains, and then continue higher late in the year. Normally, I would be going to a neutral bias in anticipation of a pullback, but since the challenge ends next month I will go a little more aggressive. (Nov. 4)

Long-term strategy

The outlook for the market is better. We have had some impressive gains over the last few weeks. The market sprinted out of the gates, but we must remember the race is a marathon, so I would look for the market to take a breather around here. The timing and length of a pullback is debatable. I would also remind investors that not much has changed in the macro economy. (Nov. 4)

Colin K. Watanabe
Branch manager
National Securities Corp.
1001 Bishop St.
Pacific Tower 1530
Honolulu, HI 96813
(808) 522-9000
Explaining the picks

The next two quarters will be challenging, but CSCO should be able to take advantage of smaller competitors' demise and expand their internet router market share beyond its current 85 percent.COST has lowered its November quarter earnings estimate to 30-32 cents but gross margins are increasing as a result of more directly sourced merchandise. (Nov. 15)

Long-term strategy

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, in explaining the latest 1/2 percentage point rate cut, told congress that the U.S. economy had hit a "soft patch" but expects us to get through it. The economy is weak not dead. Consumer sentiment halted a five-month slide this month. Since consumer spending drives 2/3 of our economy, that's a good sign. I remain cautiously optimistic. (Nov. 15)

Mario Yim
Raymond James
1221 Kapiolani Blvd., Suite 6E
Honolulu, HI 96814
591-9088
Explaining the picks

This relatively quick rise in market values in the last few weeks have obviously hurt the performance of my bond fund and market short fund selection. Despite this, we feel still feel these holdings will continue to do well as a defensive investment. (Nov. 2)

Long-term strategy

There is still more downside risk in the overall market. We're in a trading range in which active traders would probably do better than the buy and hold investor. Obviously, the limited monthly trading restrictions in this contest prevents active trading. If this is the bottom, then a retest of the recent rise will be needed. There will be ample opportunities for long investors to buy in at lower levels. (Nov. 2)