Posted on: Monday, November 25, 2002

EDITORIAL
China: A peaceful turnover? Looks like it

Things are not always as they appear in China, and never have been. The 16th Communist Party Congress has named a new generation of leaders, and most of the last generation have been turned out, willingly it seems, to pasture.

That is a first for China, at least since the Communists came to power in 1949.

Similarly, the congress has elevated the philosophy, if you will, of outgoing President Jiang Zemin to the pantheon previously reserved for the thinking of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Jiang's "Three Represents" theory is the tortuous rationalization for allowing capitalists and entrepreneurs to join the Communist Party.

What the Congress has declared, however, and what happens in the coming months may not coincide precisely.

Jiang still holds two out of three of the titles that made him paramount leader in China. He's expected to turn them over in the coming months, but a) he might not, either because he can't let go or because he's afraid his successor is not up to the job, and b) titles aren't needed to rule in China, anyway. Deng Xiaoping was the top man in China for years after his only official responsibility was president of the nation's contract bridge association.

Only time will tell who really is pulling the strings in Beijing.

Still, just because Jiang's "thought" has now officially been bronzed doesn't mean anyone will pay attention to it.

Either way, little in the way of policy change is expected. China faces a fascinating mix of danger and opportunity, and mismanagement could spell disaster. The Chinese demand continued economic growth with social stability. Yet the key to growth is to break up the state-run industries, which contributes to monumental unemployment.

China has a "floating population" of upwards of 100 million. Laid-off workers and those who haven't been paid promptly have increasingly given to rioting and demonstrations — hardly anyone's idea of stability.

The way to manage this contradiction is to grow out of it through heavy foreign investment, which means the new leadership, headed by Hu Jintao, is likely to be more than usually accommodating on foreign policy. Now is probably a good time to turn up pressure to improve still abysmal human rights in China.

Probably the most interesting problem for the Communists in the coming years: What gives the party the exclusive right to rule, when communism in China clearly is dead?