Shopping season's on, but will it be a spree?
By Anne D'Innocenzio
Associated Press
NEW YORK — All those store coupons and pre-Thanksgiving sales haven't enticed Linda Foley to get a head start on her earnest efforts at holiday shopping.
"I don't like to be pushed. ... Anyway, there isn't anything to buy," said Foley, an office administrator in Stamford, Conn., who has come up empty-handed on her rounds so far at department stores and small shops.
In fact, Foley expects she will cut back on holiday spending this year, citing worries about her job security and her observation that there's a lack of any must-have items.
As the traditional holiday season kicks off today, shoppers like Foley find that unlike last year, when new game consoles were hot, this year's merchandise seems to be less inspiring — with few exceptions like fur-trimmed outerwear and the usual select toys.
The dearth of must-haves, combined with a season six days shorter than a year ago, exacerbates what is expected to be an already difficult holiday, given the sluggish economy. The shorter season worries merchants.
In Hawai'i, some retailers don't share the same pessimism.
But so far, Mainland retailers, stocking lean inventories, haven't seen any signs making them feel more optimistic.
After going on a spending spree in October, shoppers are pulling back again. For the three weeks in November, the industry benchmark known as same-store sales remained relatively unchanged from a year ago, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd.
"Clearly, there is still considerable amount of uncertainty — the prospect of war in Iraq and the economy," said Michael P. Niemira, vice president of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd., who expects same-store sales to be up 3 percent for November-December, up from 2.2 percent last year.
The Washington-based National Retail Federation predicts total holiday retail sales, which exclude restaurant and auto sales, will increase by 4 percent to roughly $209.25 billion. That would be the weakest increase since 1997.
Last holiday, retailers rang up $201.2 billion in sales, up 5.6 percent from 2000.
In Hawai'i, several businesses are saying they don't expect any downturn in holiday sales. Some have said they expect business to be equal to or better than the 3 percent to 4 percent sales growth projections of the Ohio-based research and consulting firm Retail Forward Inc. and the National Retail Federation.
The owner of Ala Moana Center, the state's largest mall, has reported that September and October comparable store sales were up about 30 percent over last year and that the shopping center is on pace to match sales of two years ago.
The season for online retailers also appears to be off to a strong start, with spending at nearly $72 per person during the week ended Nov. 15, up 28 percent from a year ago, according to a report from Goldman Sachs & Co., Harris Interactive and Nielsen/NetRatings.
While the Conference Board has reported that consumer confidence rose in November, reversing a five-month trend, it's hard to tell what people will buy this season, given their erratic behavior all year.
