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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted on: Sunday, October 6, 2002

'Change' theme presents challenge for Hirono

By Kevin Dayton and Lynda Arakawa
Advertiser Capitol Bureau

The amorphous "change" message that has resonated throughout the governor's race has put Democratic nominee Mazie Hirono on the spot.

If there was any doubt that tens of thousands of voters want change, it was settled by Hirono's close victory over maverick Democrat Ed Case. He tapped into a vein of restless Democrats and independent voters clearly dissatisfied with things as they are, and became the symbol for the theme of change.

Analysis

A narrow victory in the primary leaves Democrat Mazie Hirono needing to woo voters eager for change. But the veteran Hawai'i politician faces a clear disadvantage in trying to seize "change" as a theme of her campaign.

After barely defeating Case in the primary, Hirono needs to woo substantial numbers of his supporters into her camp, but it isn't clear whether she has the proper bait. Hirono is a sitting lieutenant governor and a veteran state lawmaker. She is closely identified in many voters' minds with everything that is wrong with the system.

Republican Linda Lingle, who has been campaigning hard on the "change" theme, has a clear advantage. She is running against government as it is today, and makes a credible case that she is the candidate who really wants to make things different. She seized the issue early and held on tight.

Many believe Hirono must somehow break Lingle's grip to win.

In the two weeks since the primary, Hirono has been answering the call in two ways: by describing how she has been making significant changes within the system for years, and by challenging voters to be specific about what change means to them.

"I said to a group of people, 'If you lose your job, that's change. Is that good change?' " Hirono said. "So clearly we need to get beyond the buzzword of change and start talking about what kind of changes do we want."

While Case has endorsed Hirono, he continues to nudge her campaign to go further in positioning itself as a powerful force for change.

"What voters want is an open government," Case said last week. "They hate the machine politics with a passion. They hate insider trading with a passion. They hate the link between campaign contributions and government work with a passion. They want change in these areas, and so they are looking for change substantively and in the way things work."

"She has to distance herself from the status quo," Case said of Hirono. "She has to embrace the elements of change that are important to the voters."

Political pollster and Democratic strategist Don Clegg said election returns and his own research had shown a growing acceptance in the last five years of "change" candidates such as Case or Lingle, who represent a sharp break from the status quo.

Clegg theorized that voters basically define status quo as sitting lawmakers and the administration at the State Capitol, along with big labor unions. That means Case's clashes with the public employee unions and other lawmakers, and Lingle's status as an outsider at the Capitol, helped make them appealing.

In The Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll conducted last month, 68 percent of Lingle's support came from people who said she represented the best hope for change, compared with 22 percent of those supporting Hirono.

What worked against "change" candidates in the past was a tendency for some voters to pull back at the last minute from candidates seen as too radical or trying too much change too fast.

"One of these days, it's not going to be a risk, and whether this is the day I'm not sure," Clegg said. "My perception is maybe this is the day that enough people will suddenly step over the edge and say, 'Hey, I'm actually going to vote for a non-Democrat, or vote for change.'

"With the Case thing, they got pretty damn close."

Lingle, a former Maui mayor who fell about 5,000 votes short of defeating Gov. Ben Cayetano in 1998, believes the time has come.

"If you study political history anywhere in the world, eventually people vote for change," Lingle said. "It happened in Mexico. It happened in Thailand. It happened in Taiwan last December. There will come a point — and I think ... the people have reached that point — where they just say, 'Enough is enough. We gave them enough chances, we gave them the benefit of the doubt over and over again and we got more of the same.' So I think this time, as they've gotten to know me better over the last few years, I think it'll make a big difference."

Some political observers say Hirono's political background and long connection with the Democratic Party are both strengths and liabilities. Some say she must distance herself from Gov. Ben Ca-

yetano — who has grown unpopular among public school teachers and others — much as Cayetano separated himself from then-Gov. John Waihee when running to replace him in 1994.

"The fact that she's the candidate of the stalwart Democratic party, and the Democratic party has historically come through here, is really her strength," said University of Hawai'i political science professor Neal Milner. "If she wasn't the Democrat with lots of contacts and political experience and lots of name recognition, she wouldn't be where she is.

"Now, that said, there are some obvious problems with that. The party is not as strong as it used to be. Her connections with the governor are not going to help her. She has been unwilling to play in contrast with the governor to get away from that."

Former Democratic Party chairman Walter Heen also suggested Hirono should do more to keep from being seen as part of the status quo.

"I think she needs to get away from that by standing up and saying that the way we did this in the past was wrong, what we did in the past was wrong, and be specific about it," Heen said. "And then say how she's going to change it."

Hirono has made it clear she is disgusted by the conduct of a handful of Democrats involved in a series of individual corruption cases in recent years. At a Tax Foundation of Hawai'i forum, she told the audience, "I share your sense of outrage, anger, betrayal and — at bottom for me — a sense of tremendous sadness."

Hirono's message is not so much about promising change as emphasizing how she and her running mate, state Sen. Matt Matsunaga, have been making changes for years. This team, she says, will bring "positive changes ... that strengthen the economy, that improve education, that create jobs, that help our families and that help our businesses."

Hirono is largely consistent on that theme. When asked about improving areas such as education and the economy, she is quick to tell audiences about bills that were passed, programs that have been created and expanding what has been established.

Lingle has scoffed at Hirono's promises for change, saying her years as an elected official prove her incapable of it.

"So it's kind of humorous to say, 'I want a change' when I'm the one who's been there — and I think that people are seeing through that," Lingle said. "I don't think it's ringing true with people, because they know she and Ben Cayetano were a team. They ran as a team."

Case, meanwhile, said he believes voters faced a dilemma, because most want a candidate who espouses what he calls traditional Hawaiian values, including social tolerance, protection for the environment and services for the needy. But they are fed up with the status quo.

"The lieutenant governor, there's no doubt that she represents protection of the environment, care for the needy and the tradition of social tolerance," Case said. "But she has not yet done what she needs to do, which is to embrace change."