Posted at 12:29 p.m., Thursday, October 10, 2002
Retailers reeling as sales defy expectations
By Shobhana Chandra
Bloomberg News Service
Sales at Wal-Mart stores open at least a year rose 3.3 percent, the lower end of the company's reduced forecast. The world's largest retailer missed estimates the prior two months. Kohl's said sales fell 3.2 percent, its first decline in more than a year. Sales dropped 0.8 percent at Target Corp., and J.C. Penney's department stores had a 3.1 percent slump.
Consumers bought fewer sweaters and seasonal items at Kohl's and Wal-Mart, raising concern that the discount retailers known for their ability to draw customers are starting to falter, investors said. A slow economy and job cuts that led to slack demand last month may hurt sales in the holiday season, which accounts for about half of annual revenue for many retailers.
"The trend of the consumer looks bad, and it's getting worse each week," said David Abella, an analyst at Rochdale Investment Management, whose $900 million in assets include Wal-Mart shares. "Retailers are very concerned."
Federated Department Stores Inc. and BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. reduced profit estimates. Wal-Mart said in a statement it expects sales gains to slow to 2 percent to 4 percent in October, while Target expects sales at its discount stores to rise less than 2 percent this month.
Sales at U.S. chain stores open at least a year rose about 1.5 percent last month, according to a Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. forecast based on an index of about 80 retailers. That would be the smallest gain since 0.9 percent in September 2001, when spending slowed because of the terrorist attacks. The bank will report a final tally later today.
Same-store sales are considered a key indicator of a retailer's profit because they exclude new and closed locations.
Federated, the owner of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, said sales were little-changed last month and it expects a decline in October. It cut profit estimates for the second half of the year.
September results fueled concern that consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy, may be slowing. Government data shows homeowners last week filed the most applications in a decade to refinance mortgages. People may be using the extra cash to pay off other debts or to increase savings, economists said.
"You would have hoped for September's numbers to be really blockbuster," said Bill Kistler, director of research for Bill Few Associates, which manages about $500 million and holds shares of retailers including TJX Cos. "This may be telling us the consumer is starting to pull back on the purse strings."
Costs related to the port shutdown on the U.S. West Coast also hurt retailers. Gap Inc., the largest clothing chain, had a 2 percent sales decline in September, its 29th monthly drop. The owner of Gap, Banana Republic and Old Navy stores said delays in getting merchandise into stores because of the port closures may reduce fourth-quarter profit by as much as 7 cents a share.
Sears, Roebuck & Co., the largest U.S. department-store company, said store remodeling efforts were partly responsible for its 5.9 percent decline in September sales. Sales fell 5 percent at Dillard's Inc., more than forecast.
Among companies with better-than-expected results, Limited Brands, the second-largest U.S. clothing retailer, had a 6 percent gain and Neiman Marcus Group Inc., which caters mostly to affluent customers, had a 19 percent increase.