By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

Ultimately, politics is a game of numbers. Make sure you get better numbers than the other guy and you win.

So right now, the campaigns of Democrat Mazie Hirono and Republican Linda Lingle are looking closely at the numbers that came out of the primary election.

Where were they strong, where were they weak and where might they find targets of opportunity?

Advertiser Graphics Editor Stephen Downes went through the same exercise and came up with an interesting look at how we voted in the 2002 primary. Downes crunched vote returns (including absentees) provided by the state Elections Office to get his results.

The basic picture is similar to what we have seen in past elections. Republican Lingle did best in traditional GOP strongholds such as Kailua, East Honolulu, Kailua-Kona on the Big Island and most of Maui other than staunchly Democratic precincts around Wailuku and Kahului.

Hirono did best in the areas "traditional" Democrats nearly always win, such as that stretch of urban Honolulu from Liliha through Salt Lake, Pearl City and Waipahu and Newtown. She also "owned" most of the Big Island and all of Democratic bastion Kaua'i.

Those patterns can be expected to hold. So the "battleground" areas — the targets of opportunity, as it were — become those districts won by conservative Democrat Ed Case as well as a handful of "up for grabs" districts whose demographics suggest they should go Democratic but were actually "won" by Lingle.

An example of an "up for grabs" area is the 40th Dist. (Makakilo-Kapolei-Royal Kunia).

In the 40th, and in districts like it, we're seeing the emergence of a new, more independent voter. Many of these voters have roots in the Islands and come from families who traditionally voted Democratic. But this younger generation isn't an automatic "gimme" for the Democrats. They have to be "sold" on the basis of which candidate will do the most good for them personally.

Then there are the "Case" districts, which become particularly important since polls suggest his voters are sorting themselves relatively equally between Lingle and Hirono.

Look, for example, at districts such as the 19th (Kaimuki-Kahala-Wai'alae Iki), which generally tilts Republican. It went for Case in the primary, in the sense that Case received more votes there than did either Hirono or Lingle.

Will those conservative voters come "home" to Lingle in the general or will they stick with the Democrats?

Or look at a district which usually goes Democratic, such as the 25th (Makiki-Tantalus), which went for Case this time. Will these voters continue to cast a Democratic ballot, or will they transfer their interest in a conservative Democrat like Case to a moderate Republican like Lingle?

On election day, the candidate who best wins the hearts and minds of voters in these battleground districts will become our next governor.

Reach Jerry Burris through letters@honoluluadvertiser.com.