But as Hawai'i transitions into winter patterns, evident in last night's heavy rains, the public is being warned that hazards, including late-season tropical cyclones and flash flooding, are still possible.

The forecast, effective for the December through April period, was issued at a briefing presented by the National Weather Service at its Honolulu forecast office on the University of Hawai'i at Manoa campus.

"We still can go into December with tropical cyclones," said Jim Weyman, meteorologist in charge at the forecast office. "And again, I'll pitch: It only takes one. If that one is in the wrong place, at the wrong time, that can cause tremendous devastation to the state of Hawai'i."

The predictions are based in part on sea surface temperatures that are up to 1.5 degrees centigrade warmer than normal, Weyman said. However, he said the conditions are much weaker than the El Nino of the 1997-98 winter, so weather events are expected to be less intense.

But the weather service wanted to make sure the public doesn't let down its guard. Joining the presentation was Larry Kanda, state mitigation officer for the Hawai'i State Civil Defense, who said people must anticipate potential disasters.

"Our biggest problem is to convince people that they need to prepare to prepare to prevent damage from natural hazards," Kanda said.

Flash flooding is one hazard that can arise even in lesser disasters, and residents must not dismiss them as dangers that only befall rural areas, said Paul Gerard, battalion chief for the Honolulu Fire Department.