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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, October 20, 2002

INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS
How would you invest $25,000 in today's market?

Advertiser Staff

STARTING WITH $25,000 ON SEPT. 12

We asked the financial professionals listed below what they would recommend to a theoretical investor who inherits $25,000 and wants to put it into stocks, mutual funds or bonds to increase the value over the next three months.

They selected five investments of $5,000 each on Sept. 12. The chart shows the value of those investments, as of the close of the market on Friday. They are only allowed to make changes once per month. The rules put limits on the professionals that would not normally apply, and their performance must be viewed with that in mind.

Investing over a short period is risky, and this is not intended to suggest these investments are appropriate for any individual.

The participants were asked to give a comment on their picks and what they would do differently if the investments were for the long term. The date the comments were submitted is included in the chart.

Before investing in any security, it's important to evaluate your current financial situation and your long-term goals. In many cases, reducing credit-card debt or other debt would be a better use of any windfall.

The selections are those of the money managers listed and not The Honolulu Advertiser. The results do not include commission charges.

If you have any questions or comments, please contact: David Butts, assistant business editor, 535-2453 or dbutts@honoluluadvertiser.com.

• • •

Larry Goeas
AG Edwards
1001 Bishop St.
Pauahi Tower, Suite 1500
Honolulu, HI 96813
585-6939
Explaining the picks

The big will survive the hard times. Microsoft controls about 80 percent of the market for productivity applications (12-month target 59). Pfizer is the strongest competitor in the pharmaceutical industry (12-month target 59). Wal Mart is the world's largest retailer and a premier low-cost provider (12-month target 67). For diversification, Russell Mid Cap Index and Russell Small Cap Index (Sept. 24).

Long-term strategy

Invest all funds into the Frank Russell multiple manager funds. The key to obtaining positive long-term results while minimizing risk is diversification. Frank Russell & Co. offers a multi-asset, multistyle and multimanager investment approach. This careful blending of money managers and assets is the core of Russell's sophisticated, long-term investment strategy (Sept. 24).

Roberta Lee-Driscoll
Certified financial planner
1000 Bishop St., Suite 509
Honolulu, HI 96813
524-6823
Explaining the picks

Treasury bond prices change from day to day. Since last Friday there has been a drop in the bond market because there were no economic news releases on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, and better-than-expected earnings from Citigroup, GM, Johnson & Johnson and others kept the stock market strong. (Oct. 18)

Long-term strategy

Asset allocation between stocks, bonds and cash is determined by your goals and the length of time when you want your money back. No matter what your age is, you cannot have 100 percent of one asset class in an investment portfolio. Asset allocation minimizes many types of risks. (Oct. 10)

Alan Matsuda
Certified financial planner
606 Eaea Place
Honolulu, HI 96825
395-1255
Explaining the picks

My portfolio has plunged because the price of Novastar (a mortgage REIT) has plunged (despite record new home sales in August). The drop is because of "intense insider selling" that began two days after the start of this game, which doesn't allow stop/limit selling. Novastar's dividend is high -- nearly 13 percent based on our purchase price. (Oct. 3)

Long-term strategy

I would “dovetail” the windfall with investor’s overall financial situation after a quality financial planning discussion. Clipper Fund and Dodge & Cox Stock fund (using dollar cost averaging). Buy now: Corrections Corp. of America (private prisons with 90% occupancy!).  Buy on price dips: Johnson & Johnson. (Sept. 12)

Jim Rogers
Brookstreet Securities Corp.
419 South St., No. 121
Honolulu, HI 96813
524-8696
Explaining the picks

This exercise demonstrates the inherent risk and dramatic limitation of investing short term. For my hypothetical clients in this scenario, the $25,000 was to be invested in equities and/or funds with a possible gain/loss of capital. This week’s barrage of earnings releases brought mixed results which proved turbulent for the markets. (Oct. 18)

Long-term strategy

Long-term strategy is dependent upon various factors, which are unique to the client. Age, income, fiscal status are but a few of the factors to be addressed. A time horizon of five or more years would make a dollar cost averaging strategy into equities/funds advantageous. The perceived need for a rate cut by the FOMC has lessened slightly. (Oct. 18)

Bob L. Slate
Slate Financial Services
45-315 Lilipuna Road, A303
Kane'ohe, HI 96744
263-7676
Explaining the picks

A down month in September has a high probability that institutions will sell investments to offset gains/losses. This means that October, which is notoriously a down month for the market, may see further declines. I believe we are near the bottom of the downtrend, but not quite there. (Oct. 7)

Long-term strategy

The major trend of the market is pointing for a lower stock market near term, I believe this will be a short to intermediate term event. A reversal of trend is often found on heavy panic selling and then panic buying, whereby most downtrends are reversed. Long term investors should look to accumulate stocks at fair prices. (Oct. 7)

Colin K. Watanabe
Branch manager
National Securities Corp.
1001 Bishop St.
Pacific Tower 1530
Honolulu, HI 96813
(808) 522-9000
Explaining the picks

Cisco Systems, Costco Wholesale and General Electric are poised to rise as the economy recovers. ThermoEnergy Corp., a small pollution-control company in Arkansas, is close to commercializing several patents, including one that converts sewage sludge into fuel. It's highly speculative. Kelmore Strategy Fund generates income from covered-call writing, a strategy not normally available to average investors. (Sept. 12)

Long-term strategy

Any investment should consider a client's individual circumstances. An investment portfolio should be balanced and offer adequate diversity. The investment ideas presented here are for example only, may be considered speculative and therefor may not be suitable for some investors. Colin Watanabe owns each of these securities in accounts in which he has an interest. (Sept. 12)

Mario Yim
Raymond James
1221 Kapiolani Blvd., Suite 6E
Honolulu, HI 96814
591-9088
Explaining the picks

Based on continued weak economic and corporate earnings information, we continue to recommend defensive investments. Currently, treasury bonds may be somewhat overvalued after the recent 3 year run up. Adding selected corporate and mortgage back bonds and TIPS to your portfolio would be prudent as there continues to be a flight to quality. (Oct. 3)

Long-term strategy

This soon to be three-year bear market has definitely created a stock picker's market. Many index and similarly managed funds have experienced significant losses. Smaller more concentrated actively managed portfolios tend to do much better during these periods. This has created some good entry prices on certain stocks in our actual managed portfolios. (Oct. 3)