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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, October 27, 2002

How would you invest $25,000 in today's market?

Advertiser Staff


We asked the financial professionals listed below what they would recommend to a theoretical investor who inherits $25,000 and wants to put it into stocks, mutual funds or bonds to increase the value over the next three months.

They selected five investments of $5,000 each on Sept. 12. The chart shows the value of those investments, as of the close of the market on Friday. They are only allowed to make changes once per month. The rules put limits on the professionals that would not normally apply, and their performance must be viewed with that in mind.

Investing over a short period is risky, and this is not intended to suggest these investments are appropriate for any individual.

The participants were asked to give a comment on their picks and what they would do differently if the investments were for the long term. The date the comments were submitted is included in the chart.

Before investing in any security, it's important to evaluate your current financial situation and your long-term goals. In many cases, reducing credit-card debt or other debt would be a better use of any windfall.

The selections are those of the money managers listed and not The Honolulu Advertiser. The results do not include commission charges.

Larry Goeas, who participated in the earlier columns, has asked not to be included in future columns.

If you have any questions or comments, please contact: David Butts, assistant business editor, 535-2453 or dbutts@honoluluadvertiser.com.

• • •

Roberta Lee-Driscoll
Certified financial planner
1000 Bishop St., Suite 509
Honolulu, HI 96813
Explaining the picks

You get the face value of a bond on the date the bond matures.On the maturity dates — one, two, five and 10 years from now — I will get $5,000 for each note. Between now and maturity date the price of the bonds will fluctuate daily. (Oct. 25)

Long-term strategy

One method of diversifying your risk is to buy mutual funds. You can buy stock or bond mutual funds or a combination of both. Mutual funds allow you to buy many stocks or many bonds instead of just a few. There are over 10,000 mutual funds for you to choose from. (Oct. 25)

Alan Matsuda
Certified financial planner
606 Eaea Place
Honolulu, HI 96825
Explaining the picks

REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) have performed well: a 13 percent annual gain over the last 3 years versus 11 percent annual loss for S&P500 stocks. REITs must pay out 90 percent of their profits to shareholders annually. CEOs can fudge earnings, but dividends are real cash. My REITs, NFI and HPT, pay annual dividends of 14% and 9%. (Oct. 24)

Long-term strategy

Bargain prices lately for long-term investors: Ford Motor only $8; Charles Schwab only $9; two biggest airlines (United, American) only $2 and $4; No.1 and No. 3 supermarket chains (Kroger, Safeway) only $14 and $23, less than half of price three years ago. But mutual funds are safer because they give you diversification. (Oct. 18)

Jim Rogers
Brookstreet Securities Corp.
419 South St., No. 121
Honolulu, HI 96813
Explaining the picks

It has been drilled into our minds that short term investing is risky. It is. The longer the term, the greater the chances are of conforming to historical norms for rates of return. The earnings releases this week were mixed. The positive close on Friday was beneficial for equities. (Oct. 25)

Long-term strategy

Conservative versus aggressive seems to be a good question here. If the markets rally (or decline) what is your unique risk tolerance? The next few months may be seasonally positive for equities. The perceived need for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is now a coin toss. There are conflicting econometric measurements. (Oct. 25)

Bob L. Slate
Slate Financial Services
45-315 Lilipuna Road, A303
Kane'ohe, HI 96744
Explaining the picks

Earnings is the key driver of any market. We cannot control corporate earnings, but price dictates action. The key question going through the minds of investors are, is this really an upside rally or a bear hug? We are in a short to intermediate term bull phase of a secular bear market right now. Investors willing to buy in an oversold market have control of the reigns right now. (Oct. 25)

Long-term strategy

We are seeing a dramatic shift in positive market sentiment. A good phrase to follow is "below the 200 day moving average, bears rule." There will be a price entry that will allow appropriate risk suitable for the individual investor’s needs. For long term investors, price timing isn't that crucial and buying quality investments at fair prices should be the course of action. (Oct. 25)

Colin K. Watanabe
Branch manager
National Securities Corp.
1001 Bishop St.
Pacific Tower 1530
Honolulu, HI 96813
(808) 522-9000
Explaining the picks

Even with the markets' strength over the last three weeks, there is still fear of a "double dip" recession. COST and GE both had stronger earnings last quarter. CSCO, reports seeing improved order trends and will release earnings this week. KSOIX paid its ninth dividend of the year on Oct. 1. And despite its disappointing price, I am hopeful that TMEN will win their first contract by year-end. (Oct. 25)

Long-term strategy

"Cheap" prices do not necessarily translate to a "good buy." However, bond yields would indicate that money is flowing out of fixed-income (defensive) and into equities. Each investment should be evaluated on its merits since there are clearly no "guaranteed" industries. Please remember that these investment ideas are for example only and may not be suitable for some investors. (Oct. 25)

Mario Yim
Raymond James
1221 Kapiolani Blvd., Suite 6E
Honolulu, HI 96814
Explaining the picks

Based on continued weak economic and corporate earnings information, we continue to recommend defensive investments. Currently, treasury bonds may be somewhat overvalued after the recent 3 year run up. Adding selected corporate and mortgage back bonds and TIPS to your portfolio would be prudent as there continues to be a flight to quality. (Oct. 3)

Long-term strategy

This soon to be three-year bear market has definitely created a stock picker's market. Many index and similarly managed funds have experienced significant losses. Smaller more concentrated actively managed portfolios tend to do much better during these periods. This has created some good entry prices on certain stocks in our actual managed portfolios. (Oct. 3)