Terrorism presents new worry

By Ted Anthony
Associated Press

As a surfer rode a wave at Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, warships ringed the beach resort. Many resort areas worry about a loss of visitors as terrorism threats mount. The Bali nightclub attack this month reinforced those fears. Associated Press

Before this month, though, so was Bali.

This resort community, where the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum chose to convene this year, embodied a key dilemma for many of the organization's 21 member economies, which view tourism as crucial to their financial well-being: In the age of terror, how do you keep the visitors coming?

"For consumers, it doesn't matter where it happens. It affects all of us," says Alfredo Rosas, marketing director for Pueblo Bonito Hotels and Resorts, whose Pueblo Bonito Rose sprawls across several acres of Cabo San Lucas coastline.

There isn't an APEC nation unfazed by the Oct. 12 bombing in Bali, which, for the tourist economy across the Pacific Rim, was a left jab to Sept. 11's right hook. And those aren't insignificant blows.

"The region as a whole is totally dependent on tourism," said Hidetaka Saeki, Japan's top APEC representative.

The sweep of APEC economies constitutes a great chunk of modern tourism — from Thai beaches to the Australian outback, from Beijing's Forbidden City to Mexico's ancient ruins and Florida's Walt Disney World. Of the 15 top tourist sites listed by the World Tourism Organization, six — the United States, China, Russia, Mexico, Canada and Hong Kong — are APEC members.

After Sept. 11, visitors to Florida, a popular domestic and international destination, dropped by about 19 percent in the last three months of 2001. Other economies across APEC have reported similar unsettling numbers.

For places like Bali, where tourism truly forms the backbone of the economy, the future is uncertain. The Bali bombing could interrupt "the flow of long-haul tourists to other countries of Asia and the Pacific," the World Tourism Organization says.

During their meeting last week, leaders of APEC economies often sounded a warning bell about tourism, saying that fortifying their security together could help persuade visitors that the region was safe. But travelers' confidence is a risky game to bet on, and public relations efforts after the fact may not be enough.

"Services, and particularly tourism, are becoming more and more important to the global economy — and especially to APEC. It's one of the most profitable industries there is," says Rock-Antoine Mehanna, an international economist at Wartburg College in Waverly, Iowa.

"Countries," he says, "need to put tourism on their policy agenda."

Most APEC nations, especially those in Asia, have spent years working to industrialize and long considered tourism a "soft sector." But now, especially as some countries attempt to move from industrial to service economies, tourism is becoming more crucial than ever.

Mexico's president, Vicente Fox, realizes the difficulties of attracting "people who have stopped traveling out of fear," particularly Americans. His strategy: Let Americans know that Mexico is both nearby and safe, while simultaneously courting domestic tourists — Mexicans who want to see their nation.

"What we're doing is promoting more and more this internal tourism and we're compensating for the tourism that isn't coming from outside," Fox said in an interview with The Associated Press on the APEC sidelines last week. "But in the end," he acknowledged, "we need both."

The Bali blast has already affected tourism in Indonesia and the Philippines, according to Usha C.V. Haley, a professor at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville and an expert on business in the Asia-Pacific region. She says analysts disagree on the long-term economic impact of Bali.

Experts believe one class of tourists — business travelers who tack on a few days afterward — won't wane significantly. Instead, they worry about leisure travelers who plan trips purely for vacation. Those are the ones who won't want to visit nations where strife might break out.

"Some people travel regardless. Other people want to travel feeling safe. Those are the people that APEC has to address if it's talking tourism," says Seiji Naya, director of Hawai'i's Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.