By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

It has become almost a tradition in recent Hawai'i elections to see most of the real "action" take place in the last days of the campaign.

Either because people finally begin paying attention or because the campaigns have roared into high gear, the picture begins to shift:

Front-runners often falter and also-rans show unexpected momentum.

There's no reason to assume this year's election will be any different. So poll numbers, either public ones published or broadcast by the media or private ones leaked by the campaigns, must be taken with a grain of salt.

In no way are they a reliable predictor of what is going to happen on Election Day. They simply capture a moment in time.

In fact, voters should use polls much the way the candidates use them: Not so much as a horserace guide on what will happen, but as a strategic tool to analyze how the campaign is going and where strengths or weaknesses are.

The Advertiser's Hawai'i Poll, published today, can — and should — be used this way. Capitol Bureau Chief Kevin Dayton reports on Hawai'i Poll results in the primary battle among Democratic gubernatorial candidates Andy Anderson, Ed Case and Mazie Hirono.

No matter which way you cut it, Hirono has a substantial lead over the other two among those we surveyed. But let's take a closer look at the numbers, the demographics of the survey. Some fairly telling signals emerge.

• The first is that Hirono has apparently pulled together a classic Hawai'i Democratic voter base, and it pays off in the numbers. She is strongest on the Neighbor Islands, among AJA and Filipino voters, among kama'aina and among voters from union households. Case has an edge among Caucasian voters while Anderson is strongest among Hawaiians. All this suggests Hirono will continue to campaign as a traditional mainstream Democrat.
• There is no recognizable "gender gap" working for Hirono against her two male challengers. Don't expect Hirono to play up that distinction between herself and the other two.
• Case's mantra of "change," which presumably might appeal to newcomers who are feeling shut out, doesn't seem to be getting through. In fact, he did less well among the small handful of decided newcomers in this survey than did either Anderson or Hirono.
• At the same time, Anderson's long years in politics and public service don't seem to give him any particular advantage among older voters or lifetime residents. As she is in almost any category, Hirono is strongest here, too.
• Case gets a little "bump" from voters who said they usually go Republican but they will try the Democratic primary this year. There aren't many of these folks, but Case gets the bulk of them.
• Finally, there are enough undecided or undeclared voters in this survey to suggest things will have to change once minds are finally made up in the voting booth. But happily for Hirono, those undecided folks generally come from the camps where she is strongest, including Neighbor Islanders and AJAs.

Reach Jerry Burris through letters@honoluluadvertiser.com.