Matsunaga, Aiona lead race for No. 2 spot
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By Kevin Dayton
Advertiser Capitol Bureau Chief
James "Duke" Aiona and Dalton Tanonaka are locked in a tight race for lieutenant governor in the Republican primary, while Matt Matsunaga is easily dominating the Democratic primary, according to The Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll.
Of the voters who said they plan to participate in the Democratic primary, 42 percent said they would vote for Matsunaga if the election were held today, while 21 percent said they plan to vote for Clayton Hee, a trustee of the Office of Hawaiian Affairs.
Another 11 percent backed Donna Ikeda, a Board of Education member and former state senator. Less than 1 percent of voters said they would vote for Marvin Franklin.
The poll consisted of a random statewide telephone survey of 421 registered voters who identified themselves as likely to vote in the Democratic primary and 226 registered voters who identified themselves as likely to vote in the Republican primary. The margin of`error means that 95 times out of 100 the sample data would differ by no more than plus or minus 5 percentage points (7 points in the Republican primary) from total population data, if all Hawai'i registered voters were polled.
Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu conducted the poll of 647 registered voters Aug. 30 to Sept. 3. The margin of error for the Democratic primary portion of the poll is 5 percentage points, meaning that in a survey of all Hawai'i registered voters, the percentages for each candidate could be 5 percentage points higher or lower.
About the poll
Matsunaga, a state senator who represents the Kaimuki area, said he is pleased with the poll results.
"It validates the hard work of our volunteers, but we have to continue to work hard and go after these undecideds and get our message out there," he said.
Hee said yesterday that he considered the numbers encouraging.
"Six weeks ago I was at 12 — and 10 days ago at 24, according to our figures," Hee said. He said that seems to jibe with the newspaper poll figure of 21 percent.
"Clearly the momentum is on our side," Hee said. "We're going into the last two weeks in pretty good shape."
He also said he thought it was becoming apparent that "if Mazie Hirono is the gubernatorial candidate, then I bring a greater balance to the ticket."
Of the voters who said they plan to participate in the Republican primary, 32 percent said they would vote for retired judge Aiona if the election were today, and 27 percent said they would vote for Tanonaka, a former television news reporter.
Another 3 percent said they would vote for former state Rep. Cam Cavasso, while more than 38 percent said they have not decided who to vote for or declined to say who they prefer.
The margin of error for the Republican primary portion of the poll is 7 percent, meaning that in a survey of all Hawai'i registered voters, the percentages for each candidate could be 7 percentage points higher or lower. It also means that the Aiona and Tanonaka results are within the margin of error, suggesting the race is extremely close.
Aiona said he is less focused on what the polls say, and more intent on the election day tally.
"We have a plan, we're gonna stick to it, and we're going to work our hardest; that's the bottom line — work our butts off until Sept. 21st," Aiona said. "You're telling me there's a lot of undecideds. I guess what that means is we've got to work that much harder, to get out there and get our message and name out there."
Tanonaka said the poll shows many people haven't made up their minds, and "for any candidate that's when you've got to grab them, and we're in position to do it."
"We knew the challenge that we faced going into this race, and the numbers bear out that challenge, but with the huge undecided vote left, it's now my mission in the next two weeks to convince the majority of the voters that I have the best ideas and plans and will try to win their vote for lieutenant governor," Tanonaka said.
Reach Kevin Dayton at kdayton@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8070.
