By David Shapiro

Ethnic voting has always been a key to Hawai'i politics, and jockeying in this year's governor's race has centered on where undecided voters of Hawaiian and Filipino ancestry will land.

Scant attention has been paid to Japanese American voters, always the backbone of the Democratic Party, but Democrats would make a mistake to take them for granted this year.

These are honest and conscientious voters who, in many cases, feel more betrayed than anybody by the corruption among Democratic officials they've supported so loyally.

Some are especially embarrassed that so many of the officials who have run afoul of the law, from City Hall to the state Legislature to the airport contracting scandal, have been of Japanese ancestry.

It's a good bet that Japanese American voters wrestling with this dilemma make a big chunk of undecided respondents in recent public opinion polls.

Indeed, the single largest group of "undecided" voters in The Advertiser's most recent Hawai'i Poll were among voters of Japanese ancestry. (Hawaiians were the least undecided.)

And it's no coincidence that Ed Case's latest TV ads spotlight his wife, the former Audrey Nakamura.

It would take a major shift of the Japanese American vote to pull Case or D.G. "Andy" Anderson over front-runner Mazie Hirono in Saturday's primary. But even a small shift within this group could give Lingle the decisive edge in the general election.

An important asset for Hirono is that she's never been personally touched by any of the scandals and has an impeccable record of personal integrity.

But she represents the entrenched wing of the Democratic Party that is perceived to be responsible for the ethical shenanigans, ineffective leadership and resistance to change.

She's been hurt by the indifference to her candidacy of U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye, the most respected figure among voters of Japanese ancestry.

Inouye was a key factor in Hirono's decision to get out of the governor's race last year to clear the way for Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris to become the Democratic nominee.

When Harris dropped out in May and Hirono jumped back in as the new Democratic front-runner, Inouye's fingerprints were all over the failed attempt by some party leaders to recruit a stronger candidate.

Hawai'i's senior senator is officially neutral now, but he's given broad hints that he favors Case as the candidate who can most likely lead Democrats to victory over Lingle.

Inouye will lead an emotional campaign for party loyalty against Lingle, whichever Democrat wins the primary. But would his professed enthusiasm for Hirono ring hollow after he's made it so clear that he doesn't think she has what it takes?

Hirono's campaign is based on the belief that the vast majority of Democratic voters aren't nearly as unhappy with state government as Republicans and the news media make them out to be.

If Hirono scores a big victory in the primary, it will signal that she's right, has succeeded in winning over the Japanese American bloc and other elements of the Democratic coalition, and will stand a good chance of keeping them home against Lingle.

If any Democrat wins in a close race, however, it will be clear that some of those backbone votes the party always takes for granted are up for grabs in November.

David Shapiro can be reached by e-mail at dave@volcanicash.net.