Posted on: Thursday, September 19, 2002

EDITORIAL
Why can't Bush take 'yes' for an answer?

Is Iraq sincere in its offer to let United Nations inspectors back into the country to verify whether or not weapons of mass destruction exist there? Of course not.

But Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein would not have offered to let the inspectors back in if he hadn't sensed a mounting international consensus, including his Arab neighbors, lining up against him.

That pressure will only intensify if — when — Saddam reverts to his old tricks to frustrate inspectors. That's the kind of pressure the Bush administration ought to be working overtime to cultivate.

Secretary of State Colin Powell is right that the ultimate goal in this confrontation is not inspection but disarmament. But achieving that goal through diplomacy is infinitely to be preferred to war.

Remember, the administration has yet to demonstrate that Saddam truly possesses viable, deliverable weapons of mass destruction. Although a U.N. inspection regime might not detect every single weapon, it seems unlikely that overall capabilities would escape its notice.

So Bush's extreme impatience with the United Nations is hard to understand. His speech in New York was all but an ultimatum — not to Saddam, but to the international organization itself, declaring that its failure to do his bidding would render it irrelevant.

And then he chided members of Congress — people whose support he also should cultivate — for being unwilling to vote him new war powers.

But why the unseemly haste? Now that Iraq says it will comply, there seems little to be lost by testing that pledge. Now that the international community sees a clear choice — either Iraq cooperates or Bush attacks — these nations will pressure Saddam to comply.

As Bush continues to stir war fever without resorting to justification, cynics inevitably turn to hidden agendas. Short term, all this serves to divert attention from Bush administration officials linked to corporate scandal, just weeks before elections that will decide who controls Congress.

Longer term, it's impossible to discuss the future of Iraq without including oil. Iraq's oil reserves are second only to those of Saudi Arabia. But it can pump only a small part of that reserve because of sanctions.

The French and the Russians have deals with Saddam to proceed if he can get the sanctions lifted. American oil companies would be left out. But the American companies have tied up the loyalties of Saddam's opposition, which presumably would run a post-Saddam government.

This may be why Russia and France have tempered their resistance to a war against Saddam. They can't afford to be shut out of the oil business if Saddam is overthrown.

If Bush wishes to convince the world, Congress and the American people that Saddam truly is an imminent threat, he must begin a frank and respectful presentation of what he understands to be the facts of the matter — all of them.