Low turnout in primary spells bad news for Lingle

By Kevin Dayton
Advertiser Capitol Bureau Chief

Conchita Bautista walks to a wall of empty voting booths for District 41 at Waipahu Elementary School. Precinct official Jannel Cenence waits for more voters. Bruce Asato • The Honolulu Advertiser

Hawai'i has witnessed pumped-up primary elections in the recent past that foretold close and energetic general election contests, but yesterday's primary looked nothing like that.

After record-high numbers of voters in the 1994 and 1998 primaries, it appears the number voting yesterday might be the lowest in a Hawai'i gubernatorial primary in more than 25 years.

That must be deeply troubling for Lingle, who needs an active, angry voting public that will stomp to the polls to demand change on Nov. 5. A complacent public won't give Lingle the votes she needs to break the Democrats' 40-year hold on the governor's office.

The struggle in the general election campaign will mostly be over people who consider themselves independents and can be won over by either party. But independents are not particularly reliable voters, as Ed Case learned in yesterday's Democratic primary.

The low turnout especially stung Case's campaign, which was customized to appeal to independents and Democrats unhappy with the direction their party has taken. He came achingly close to toppling Mazie Hirono. But ultimately the Democratic side supported Hirono, a fixture in local politics for 20 years and hardly the symbol of change that Case, and even D.G. "Andy" Anderson, portrayed themselves to be.

Voters are often driven by economic concerns, and the economy may be the major factor accounting for the shift in voter behavior. In 1998, unemployment was higher, business was slower and people appeared to be more worried about the future.

This year, the state seems to have weathered the worst of the Sept. 11 fallout, unemployment is lower than on the Mainland, the red-hot real estate market has saved thousands who were "upside-down" on their mortgages just a few years ago, and public opinion in general seems to be more calm.

Micah Kane, chairman of the Hawai'i Republican Party, said the GOP has been holding back during the primary, and is now ready to take its case to independents and discouraged Democrats.

The Republican organization is better developed and better financed today than it was in 1998, and "right now, people just want to be unleashed," he said.

They will have to work fast. After yesterday's lackluster primary turnout, the GOP has just 45 days to convince more voters to rise up and oust the Democrats.

Alicia Andres, left, Becky McPeek and Grace Ching were hardly busy precinct officials at the District 21 polls at Jefferson Elementary School yesterday. Light turnout was reported throughout the state. Gregory Yamamoto • The Honolulu Advertiser

Lingle has been the clear leader in the polls thus far, but the Republicans understand the tremendous damage that a united Democratic Party can inflict on even a substantial lead.

Lingle led Ben Cayetano by 20 percentage points in summer polls in 1998, but that advantage evaporated in the three months that followed. Lingle lost the race by 5,254 votes, with polls showing that younger voters and union members in particular had shifted their support from Lingle to Cayetano in September and October.

This year, The Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll found Hirono, the Democratic frontrunner, trailing Lingle by about 15 percentage points in June, despite a confusing first half of the year. Hirono actually left the race for governor last November to run for mayor, and did not re-enter the governor's race until May, after Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris withdrew his candidacy.

While Lingle did well in the June poll among union households, labor leaders have again pledged to pull together behind the Democrat who advances to the general election. Some of the unions were slow to endorse in the primary or did not endorse at all.

Despite a major advertising push in the week or so leading up to the election, the Republicans were unable to motivate people to go to the polls and pull a GOP ballot.

That compares with the 150,000 people who flocked to the 1998 Republican contest between Lingle and former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi.

Lingle actually received more votes in the 1998 primary than Cayetano, which shocked political watchers. For 16 years, the Demo-

crats always had attracted more than twice as many voters to their primary as all the other parties combined. The 1998 primary performance spooked the Democrats and demonstrated Lingle's extraordinary political appeal.

Despite an unusually large GOP get-out-the-vote advertising push last week, primary night 2002 was a different story. The share of registered voters who turned out to vote appeared to be running at or below the level of the 2000 election, which was an all-time low.

Leading up to the primary, the political gossip said Case was the only Democrat who could beat Lingle in the general election. This line of thought was encouraged by Case, who argued that the voting public cares less for party affiliation now than in the past, and is looking for a candidate who can deliver dramatic change. He argued that he stood for true change, whereas Hirono represented the status quo.

But "change" is an old theme in Hawai'i politics. It was effectively used by John Waihee in his 1986 campaign for governor, and by Cayetano in 1994 and 1998. It isn't clear yet whether Hirono also can successfully market herself as an agent of change, but she obviously intends to try.

Case, on the other hand, would have faced some daunting obstacles that simply won't be a problem for Hirono. The Hawai'i Poll last spring showed Lingle leading Case by a larger margin than she led Hirono.

One critical factor is that the traditional Democratic base is divided over Case, who was bitterly opposed by the leadership of public worker unions. Case is an outspoken advocate of changes such as privatization and cuts in the cost of public worker health benefits, and has argued the state cannot continue to hand out generous raises and benefits to state workers.

Without union support, it would have been extremely difficult for Case to pull together the Democratic Party to take on Lingle, though his strong finish last night showed he was drawing support from somewhere. Hirono enjoys the support of organized labor.

Ethnicity is also a factor that would tend to work against Case in a general election contest with Lingle. Politicians widely acknowledge it is easier to convince voters to support people they perceive to be like them in terms of ethnicity, background or other factors. That gives Hirono an edge with a large bloc of Hawai'i voters.

Gov. Ben Cayetano, U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye and others have predicted that the outcome of the general election this year would depend entirely on how the seemingly fragmented Democratic party behaves from today.

"When the Democratic Party is together, it is a formidable force, and that's what has to happen in order for Democrats to carry the day on November 5," Cayetano told reporters last week as he sized up the election ahead.

Reach Kevin Dayton at 525-8070 or kdayton@honoluluadvertiser.com.