ANALYSIS
Defining change a challenge
| • | Change is buzzword for Democrats, Republicans |
| • | Final results of the Hawai'i primary election |
By Kevin Dayton
Advertiser Capitol Bureau Chief
Since he had little money for advertising, Ed Case had to keep it simple. He essentially packaged a single word and hammered it into the voters' heads at every opportunity.
The word was "change" and the strategy nearly won Case the hard-fought Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Precisely what "change" meant to the 74,082 voters who favored Case, and why it was so appealing to them is a puzzle for the Democrats to dissect in the weeks ahead as they try to woo those Case voters to Mazie Hirono's camp.
Hirono, who will face Republican Linda Lingle in the general election, won her primary race with Case by a tiny margin of 2,603 votes on Saturday.
Hirono won on each of the Neighbor Islands but lost by a margin of almost 1,900 votes on O'ahu, a pattern that some candidates believe points to the continuing strength of organized labor outside Honolulu. The state's biggest unions were generally supportive of Hirono, while openly hostile to Case.
Case said yesterday his support came from what he called "traditional" Democrats and independents of both kinds — the ones who lean toward Democrats and the ones who lean toward Republicans. Because of his strong showing, he said he assumes Hirono will fold his issues into her campaign.
"That's what it's going to take for her to prevail, and I think she knows it, I know it, the entire Democratic Party knows it and everybody else in Hawai'i knows it," Case said.
Although Hirono insists that she, too, is for "responsible change," her eight years as lieutenant governor meant she entered the primary as the candidate most closely associated in the voters' minds with the Democratic establishment.
Case used that perception of Hirono to attack her in his campaign, and clearly his timing was right.
Ira Rohter, associate professor of political science at the University of Hawai'i and a chairman of the Hawai'i Green Party, said a significant number of Democratic voters seem caught this year is what is known as "cross-pressure," meaning they want something new, but are reluctant to take the political plunge into the Republican Party.
Rohter contends many traditional Democrats are embarrassed at some of the recent foibles of Democratic officials, including several who landed in prison for their misdeeds. Those voters don't want to vote for the same group again, but are reluctant to vote Republican.
For those voters, backing Case and his "change" mantra offered a way to settle the matter because Case was a Democrat who had distinguished himself as outside the mainstream of the party during his years representing Manoa in the state House.
"People all say they want change, but they don't want radical change," Rohter said. "They want something that's comfortable. To me, that's why the Lingle ads come across as warm and fuzzy."
Former Gov. George Ariyoshi agreed, saying many people feel strongly that the party needs to change direction, but "they were Democrats and they were not ready to abandon the party." So, they voted for Case.
Gov. Ben Cayetano said the election results demonstrate some voters are giving up on the party. He said he believes Case was successful because he convinced voters that he wants change that's not just for the sake of it, "but change that's needed."
"I think that the message for Mazie is to take that into account and craft a program that's going to address those kind of feelings," Cayetano said.
But figuring out exactly what the voters understand change to mean is getting tricky.
In his concession speech Saturday night, Case told supporters the coming campaign "is about all of us going out and saying we hear you, we will deliver change, but we will deliver change with a 'D' (for Democrat)."
By that, Case explained to the crowd, he meant change that preserves the environment, change that preserves the host culture of the Hawaiians, change that preserves the social services safety net, and "change that keeps a sense of social tolerance" amid Hawai'i's diversity.
Case predicted Hirono would adopt many of his campaign themes, and she has been recently using "responsible change" as a catch phrase.
At a unity breakfast yesterday morning, Hirono explained that she, too, is big on change. "My message was that I want positive change and I am the person with experience," Hirono said. "I've always been for change, and clearly we're going to move forward with that kind of a message, who best can make the change."
Republican Party Chairman Micah Kane, meanwhile, suggests Hawai'i should change by electing more Republicans to state government to limit the Democrats' grip on political power and "restore balance" to the system.
So which version of "change" are the voters after?
"That's the problem: I don't think people really know what kind of change," said state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa. "If you figure that out, you get to be governor."
Reach Kevin Dayton at 525-8070 or kdayton@honoluluadvertiser.com.
