Hawai'i-based troops bracing for sudden sendoff to Iraq
By William Cole
Advertiser Military Writer
Marine Corps Maj. Chris Hughes spent more than three months in Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom.
Now he wonders if he'll be deployed again for a possible successor to Operation Desert Storm in Iraq — something other Kane'ohe-based Marines are wondering, too.
"Absolutely (they're thinking about it). It's like where we were a year ago right now," said Hughes, referring to the uncertainty following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
The public affairs officer at Kane'ohe Bay went to Afghanistan in November, where he was a Marine Corps spokesman at Camp Rhino and in Kandahar.
"I keep thinking, 'Am I going to miss Christmas again? Am I going to have to explain this to the kids again?'" Hughes said.
It's part of being a Marine.
"I think there's a flexibility in the Marine Corps to jump when we're told to jump, and be able and willing to do that," he said.
Given the Bush administration's fighting words, Hawai'i-based forces may be called upon to jump sooner rather than later.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld last week told the House Armed Services Committee the goal in Iraq "isn't inspections — the goal is disarmament."
"We will not allow the world's worst leaders to threaten us with the world's worst weapons," President Bush said Monday at an Army National Guard facility in Trenton, N.J.
The Washington Times reported that U.S. military planners were focusing on February as the optimum time for a possible invasion of Iraq, with anywhere from 75,000 to 250,000 troops.
While Hawai'i-based Marines and soldiers largely got a pass when it came to Afghanistan — mostly an air and special operations campaign — the same may not hold true for Iraq if there is a significant ground war, said Michael Pavkovic, a military historian and director of the diplomacy and military studies program at Hawai'i Pacific University.
During Operation Enduring Freedom, Pearl Harbor-based ships patrolled the Arabian Sea, while Navy P-3C Orion sub hunters based at the Kane'ohe Bay Marine Corps base took on a unique overland combat role, flying daily missions.
"They can't keep the 25th (Infantry Division, Light) here if there's a major operation being carried out in the Middle East," Pavkovic said. "They may not take the entire division, but they'll have to take battalions, batteries, that sort of thing."
Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies in Honolulu, and formerly on the command staffs of two Pacific commanders-in-chief in the 1980s and 1990s, believes the 25th would be held in reserve for a Korean Peninsula contingency, but the Marines could be used.
Asked what preparations Pacific Command is making for war, spokeswoman Lt. Cmdr. Jensin Sommer said: "Contingency planning is a regular part of what we do at Pacific Command. Our mission is to provide forces that are ready and credible."
About 7,600 Kane'ohe Marines and 500 Schofield Barracks soldiers and reservists were deployed during Operation Desert Storm. Marines in the Hawai'i-based Task Force Taro were the first to cross an Iraqi-mined Kuwait border. Altogether, about 550,000 U.S. troops were involved in the 1991 Gulf War.
"I don't think it's going to be a Desert StormiDesert Shield level operation (in Iraq)," Pavkovic said. "But I don't think it needs to be that to start taking troops from here."
Reports have said Bush administration officials expect a quick win in Iraq, with morale low and its forces diminished. Rumsfeld last week said, "You don't know if (a possible war) is going to last two days or two weeks or two months. It certainly isn't going to last two years."
But Pavkovic noted, "you are talking about facing a guy who has tank divisions." According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has 424,000 active-duty troops, 2,200 tanks, 2,050 pieces of artillery, 375 helicopters, and 316 combat aircraft.
"I don't see air power by itself necessarily being able to force Iraq to do the kinds of things the president wants," Pavkovic said. He said forces such as the 25th could be deployed, but not necessarily for combat. Local troops could replace a mechanized unit needed for Iraq if the mechanized unit were performing peacekeeping duties in a place such as Bosnia, he said.
If there is a sizable ground war, at some point Iraqi forces "are not going to be able to do anything except turn and fight, and you are going to have Iraqi tank units and mechanized units," Pavkovic said. "You are going to have to fight those with a significant force structure."
Pavkovic also believes a ground war in Iraq would mean additional Hawai'i Air National Guard call-ups. Hickam Air Force Base and the Hawai'i Air National Guard's 203rd Air Refueling Squadron of KC-135R Stratotankers provide an "air bridge" across the Pacific that would be even more crucial in a war with Iraq.
"All of those (U.S.) heavy divisions, mechanized infantry and tank divisions, require an immense logistical tail of spare parts, fuel, mechanics," Pavkovic said. "All of that stuff has to come from somewhere and get there via the air bridge."
As a result, he said, it's likely even more Hawai'i Air Guard personnel would be called to active duty.
For Operation Enduring Freedom, more than 600 Hawai'i Air and Army Guard personnel were serving on active duty. That number has dropped to more than 200 Air Guard and about 45 Army Guard personnel.
B-52 and B-1 bombers were refueled via the Hickam air bridge, as were transport aircraft bringing soldiers — including 101st Airborne troops — and material into Afghanistan, said Guard spokesman Maj. Chuck Anthony.
Anthony said he could not speculate on future missions, but Guard units "have supported contingency operations in the past, and they stand ready to do so again any time they are called upon to do so."
Nationwide, more than 70,000 Guard and reserve forces have been called up to active duty.
Asked last week about the number needed if there were an invasion of Iraq, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Richard B. Myers said: "Some more would have to be called up."
Meanwhile, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln recently arrived in the Persian Gulf, where the George Washington battle group had been operating. The Lincoln battle group includes Pearl Harboribased ships Reuben James, a guided missile frigate; and destroyers Paul Hamilton and Fletcher.
Tanks, armored vehicles, mortars and artillery were moved to an Army base in Kuwait in July, and the Pentagon is seeking permission from Britain to base B-2 stealth bombers on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
"I think at this point it's going to be hard to back down (from remarks made by the Bush administration about war)," Pavkovic said.
Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-5459.
Advertiser news services contributed to this report.
