By David Shapiro

The 2002 governor's election will be decided mostly by the 107,460 Democratic voters who cast ballots for Ed Case and D.G. "Andy" Anderson over Mazie Hirono in the primary election.

Voters who skipped the primary but decide to show up for the general election also could be key.

Hirono received 76,685 votes —only 41 percent of those cast in the Democratic primary — in a razor-thin victory against Case. Her campaign clearly was losing steam in the final weeks. The under-funded Case just ran out of time.

Now Hirono must quickly reverse her momentum and compete for the same votes all over again against Republican Linda Lingle, who received 70,778 votes — nearly as many as Hirono — in a GOP primary that had lighter participation because of better action on the Democratic side.

Hirono can probably count on getting most of the 22,000 Democrats who voted for her running mate, Matt Matsunaga, but not for her. Lingle will probably reclaim a comparable number of her supporters who crossed parties to vote for Case or the former Republican Anderson. The rest are up for grabs.

The bad news for Hirono is that these voters have already voted against her once, sending a clear message that they want a change from the status quo she represents.

The good news is that she'll have Case and Anderson in her corner. But will their supporters believe what they say now on Hirono's behalf or what they said about her during the primary campaign?

Anderson said then that Hirono deserved to be fired for her ineffective performance in public service, while Case derided her as a spear carrier for the status quo with no plan for meaningful change.

Hirono is hoping it will be a harder swallow for Democrats who voted against her the first time to now throw their support to a Republican in the general election.

For Lingle, the bad news is that Hirono is the Democrat most likely to be able to hold together the old Democratic coalition of labor unions, voters with plantation roots and social liberals.

But Lingle has a clear advantage on the issues as Hirono struggles to answer for the Democrats' poor results in revitalizing the economy, improving public schools and keeping the government honest.

Lingle has published a slick booklet detailing her positions on these issues — many of which mirror the views of Case — while Hirono skated through the primary on slogans and generalities. Her slide at the end was a sign that Democratic voters were growing weary of her platitudes.

The election will turn on how well Lingle can keep the campaign's focus on her core issues of the economy, education and honesty in government. If Democrats are capable of making needed reforms, she'll ask, why haven't they?

Democrats will try to divert the debate to the ghost of the Big Five, the social conservatism of the national Republican Party and Lingle's opposition to gasoline price controls.

Hirono also will attack Lingle's financial plan for the state government. Lingle has promised to balance the budget while cutting taxes, improving services and keeping the state workforce intact. The math doesn't compute, and she's yet to connect the dots for voters.

Apathy always favors the status quo, and voter turnout will be telling after the dreadful 41 percent participation in the primary.

Voters who come into the general election after missing the primary tend to be disgruntled independents who would tilt to Lingle. She'll need to get them to the polls.

David Shapiro can be reached by e-mail at dave@volcanicash.net.