INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS
How would you invest $25,000 in today's market?
Advertiser Staff
STARTING WITH $25,000 ON SEPT. 12
We asked the financial professionals listed below what they would recommend to a theoretical investor who inherits $25,000 and wants to put it into stocks, mutual funds or bonds to increase the value over the next three months.
They selected five investments of $5,000 each on Sept. 12. The chart shows the value of those investments, as of the close of the market on Friday. They are only allowed to make changes once per month. The rules put limits on the professionals that would not normally apply, and their performance must be viewed with that in mind.
Investing over a short period is risky, and this is not intended to suggest these investments are appropriate for any individual.
The participants were asked to give a comment on their picks and what they would do differently if the investments were for the long term. The date the comments were submitted is included in the chart.
Before investing in any security, it's important to evaluate your current financial situation and your long-term goals. In many cases, reducing credit-card debt or other debt would be a better use of any windfall.
The selections are those of the money managers listed and not The Honolulu Advertiser. The results do not include commission charges.
If you have any questions or comments, please contact: David Butts, assistant business editor, 535-2453 or dbutts@honoluluadvertiser.com.
The big will survive the hard times. Microsoft controls about 80 percent of the market for productivity applications (12-month target 59). Pfizer is the strongest competitor in the pharmaceutical industry (12-month target 59). Wal Mart is the world's largest retailer and a premier low-cost provider (12-month target 67). For diversification, Russell Mid Cap Index and Russell Small Cap Index (Sept. 24). Invest all funds into the Frank Russell multiple manager funds. The key to obtaining positive long-term results while minimizing risk is diversification. Frank Russell & Co. offers a multi-asset, multistyle and multimanager investment approach. This careful blending of money managers and assets is the core of Russell's sophisticated, long-term investment strategy (Sept. 24). I chose U.S. Treasury notes and cash primarily because of the short time frame of the game. Investments in the stock market are made to meet long-term goals. Short-term money should be kept in money market, certificate of deposits and short-term treasuries. Three months is short-term. (Sept. 26) Long-term investing requires planning up front. Knowing a person's goals, including their time requirements, is important. Their age, sources of income, current and future expenses are also important. Once a comprehensive financial picture is established, then we can work out a diversified portfolio which includes stocks, bonds and cash. (Sept. 26) I would warn Mr. Windfall that investing in stocks for a short period (until Dec 12) is not investing it's gambling and he could have more fun gambling in other ways. Next three months will be very volatile: War with Iraq? Dow 5000 warnings from Gross, Weiss. Avoid losses. (Sept. 12) I would "dovetail" the windfall with investor's overall financial situation after a quality financial planning discussion. Clipper Fund and Dodge & Cox Stock fund (using dollar cost averaging). Buy now: Corrections Corp. of America (private prisons with 90% occupancy!). Buy on price dips: Johnson & Johnson. (Sept. 12) The selections made herein are meant solely for the purposes of this exercise. They are specific to the hypothetical. Certain limitations prohibit more sophisticated portfolio management techniques. Today's investment environment is hindered by numerous current considerations. Bank or treasury investments may be more suited for the short term. (Sept. 10) Investing is the assumption of risk, accepting the variants of asymmetric information for a perceived financial gain that is above that which can be achieved from risk-free instruments. Investors should have an investment horizon that is commensurate with their own unique requirements and guidelines for the future use of their funds. (Sept. 10) We cannot control the market, so I have selected a mix of asset classes from large to small capitalized equities, government and corporate bonds. All of the equity investment styles are categorized as a value style. Corporate and Government bonds can help smooth a portfolio that is overexposed to risk. Government bonds are especially good in reflationary economies. (Sept. 26) Although we cannot properly do an asset allocation model due to the restrictions of this article, a diversified basket of investments can help to reduce the risk that are inherent in the equities market. Since we started on Sept.12 versus the close on Sept. 26, the portfolio has lost less money than the overall market (DJIA: -4.56%, S&P: -3.6% vs. Our Portfolio: -2.29%). (Sept. 26) Cisco Systems, Costco Wholesale and General Electric are poised to rise as the economy recovers. ThermoEnergy Corp., a small pollution-control company in Arkansas, is close to commercializing several patents, including one that converts sewage sludge into fuel. It's highly speculative. Kelmore Strategy Fund generates income from covered-call writing, a strategy not normally available to average investors. (Sept. 12) Any investment should consider a client's individual circumstances. An investment portfolio should be balanced and offer adequate diversity. The investment ideas presented here are for example only, may be considered speculative and therefor may not be suitable for some investors. Colin Watanabe owns each of these securities in accounts in which he has an interest. (Sept. 12) Based on our research and evaluation of the overall market, we are forecasting a decline in the overall stock market values for at least the remainder of 2002. Subsequently, we are recommending investing in defensive assets and investments that generally benefit from a falling stock market. (Sept. 26) On a long-term portfolio, we still believe adding individual stocks and equity mutual funds will yield superior returns over most other investments, but due to the short-term downside risk, we are recommending limiting and reducing exposure in equities to limit portfolio losses. (Sept. 26)
Larry Goeas
AG Edwards
1001 Bishop St.
Pauahi Tower, Suite 1500
Honolulu, HI 96813
585-6939
Explaining the picks
Long-term strategy
Roberta Lee-Driscoll
Certified financial planner
1000 Bishop St., Suite 509
Honolulu, HI 96813
524-6823
Explaining the picks
Long-term strategy
Alan Matsuda
Certified financial planner
606 Eaea Place
Honolulu, HI 96825
395-1255
Explaining the picks
Long-term strategy
Jim Rogers
Brookstreet Securities Corp.
419 South St., No. 121
Honolulu, HI 96813
524-8696
Explaining the picks
Long-term strategy
Bob L. Slate
Slate Financial Services
45-315 Lilipuna Road, A303
Kane'ohe, HI 96744
263-7676
Explaining the picks
Long-term strategy
Colin K. Watanabe
Branch manager
National Securities Corp.
1001 Bishop St.
Pacific Tower 1530
Honolulu, HI 96813
(808) 522-9000
Explaining the picks
Long-term strategy
Mario Yim
Raymond James
1221 Kapiolani Blvd., Suite 6E
Honolulu, HI 96814
591-9088
Explaining the picks
Long-term strategy