U.S. contends with lack of data on Saddam

By Greg Miller and Bob Drogin
Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON — With U.S. forces poised for a dangerous assault on Baghdad, Iraq, military and other officials say there is a distressing lack of intelligence on the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein, his inner circle and the regime's suspected stores of banned weapons.

Saddam's appearance yesterday on Iraqi television underscored the level of uncertainty, providing the first credible indication that he might have survived air strikes some believed had killed him at the outset of the war.

That attack raised hopes that the war might end before it had fully begun, or at least that U.S. intelligence might have a good bead on the Iraqi dictator. But officials said intelligence out of Baghdad since that attack largely has dried up, despite expectations that the enormous military pressure bearing down on Saddam's regime would prompt a wave of defections and a flood of information by this point in the war.

Pentagon officials this week expressed concern that intelligence on the Iraqi leadership is "weak" despite the daring work of CIA informants and operatives inside the capital city.

One senior Pentagon official struck a blind pose — eyes closed, arms extended — when asked about the quality of intelligence war planners are getting.

"Nobody can tell us where anybody is," the official said. "Nobody can tell us what buildings they're in so that we can bomb them. I'd call that weak."

Intelligence officials dispute that characterization, but acknowledge they have had limited success in locating Saddam and other high-interest officials inside Baghdad. They also stressed it is an exceedingly difficult assignment.

The spy community's most sensitive information is coming from a small number — perhaps a dozen or fewer — of Iraqi informants operating inside Baghdad on behalf of the CIA and the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency.

The operatives were sent into Baghdad before the war started with high-speed communications gear that enables them to send sensitive information through encoded satellite transmissions and other means to CIA and DIA officers positioned elsewhere in the country, according to an intelligence official familiar with the operation.

The operatives scavenge for information on the whereabouts of the Iraqi leadership, serve as spotters at key locations in the city where Saddam and other members of his inner circle might surface, and have directed U.S. air strikes on a number of key targets.

Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, praised the work of the operatives, saying, "The assets we have (in Baghdad) in regard to military targets have been excellent."

But he and others acknowledged that reliable, specific information on Saddam, his two powerful sons, Udai and Qusai, and others in the senior leadership has been scant to nonexistent.

"We've been making every effort," Roberts said. "But it's easier said than done. His modus operandi is that he's constantly on the move, using doubles," and relying on layers of security to prevent outsiders from getting close to him.