One thing, however, has become increasingly clear: The "Dear Leader" of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Kim Jong Il, has resolutely determined that his nation will become a nuclear power. The DPRK already has two nuclear weapons and is preparing to produce about one a month.

Peter Hayes, an experienced Pyongyang-watcher at the Nautilus Institute for research and political action, wrote on Friday: "Now, it appears that they [North Koreans] are obsessed with obtaining nuclear weapons and have made a strategic decision to commit to this course."

Hayes' comments on an Internet posting followed similar assessments recently from Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, retired diplomats who have dealt with the North Koreans, Japanese defense officials, South Korean analysts, and scholars specializing in North Korean affairs.

This leaves the Bush administration with three options:

• Capitulate. Only by giving in to North Korea's demands can the administration hope to turn Kim Jong Il from his set course. Those demands include a pact precluding the U.S. from attacking North Korea, a withdrawal of American forces from South Korea, diplomatic recognition, economic aid and favorable trade conditions. A non-aggression pact with North Korea would call into question treaties with Japan and South Korea that oblige the United States to come to their defense if they are attacked.

Even if the United States were to accede to North Korea's demands, there would be no guarantee that Pyongyang would not go nuclear. It has broken several nuclear agreements in the past and has vowed not to admit inspectors to verify its compliance with agreements on nuclear weapons.

• Accept. If the Bush administration cannot dissuade North Korea, the United States will be forced to live with — and deter — North Korea as a nuclear power. The consequence may be an East Asian nuclear arms race. South Koreans, already disenchanted with the United States, have the capability to produce nuclear arms and may do so. Japan, which generates almost 30 percent of its electricity with nuclear power, could easily make weapons if the Japanese overcome the "nuclear allergy" that remains from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II.

Taiwan also has the capacity to make nuclear arms, which would add an enormous complication to the dispute with China over the island's future. Taiwan has been inching toward independence while China, which has a large nuclear arsenal and claims sovereignty over Taiwan, has threatened to use military force to prevent that independence.

• Strike. President Bush, who has embraced a doctrine of pre-emptive strikes, could order U.S. military forces to bomb North Korea's nuclear facilities. That could be done with conventional weapons without hitting the reactors and releasing radiation. The targets would include electrical power stations and transmission lines, roads and supply warehouses, and other vital support structures.

The North Koreans, who have positioned large formations of their military forces close to the demilitarized zone that divides the peninsula, have vowed to mount a massive attack on South Korea and possibly Japan if the United States strikes first. The United States, which has 37,000 troops in South Korea, and South Korea, which has a well-trained army, would almost certainly defeat the North Koreans but the cost in blood would be horrendous.

One more hurdle: North and South Korea are technically still at war, the Korean War of 1950-53 having ended in a truce. The North Koreans have so far refused to sign a peace treaty with the South Koreans as that would recognize South Korea's right to exist and would undercut Pyongyang's claim to the right to rule the entire peninsula.

In sum, President Bush and his senior advisers are being confronted with a new and potentially costly crisis even as they relish the swift and devastating victory that American military forces have just scored over Iraq.