Travel industry pins hope on summer

By Kelly Yamanouchi
Advertiser Staff Writer

There's growing hope that summer will bring a brighter outlook for Hawai'i's visitor industry, based on bookings for coming months, say tourism executives.

Summer tourist bookings are expected to be an important indicator of how Hawai'i's visitor industry will recover from the effects of the war, the shaky economy and concerns about severe acute respiratory syndrome. Advertiser library photo • Aug. 24, 2002

The summer season, an important time for the tourism industry, will be a key indicator this year of how well the industry will recover from the negative impacts on travel from the war in Iraq, a weak economic environment and the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome.

"There seems to be a little more confidence in the market, but there's still concerns with respect to further terrorism as well as SARS. ... So far we've escaped it, but obviously that's something that's still in the back of our mind," Toy said.

"We're still going to be in a fairly volatile market."

While the number of airline passengers arriving from the Mainland in the past several days generally has beaten last year's showing, the number of international passengers flying into the state has declined about 30 percent to 40 percent compared with a year ago, according to state figures.

For the summer, hotel occupancy in Hawai'i during the record year of 2000 was in the low- to mid-80 percent range, Toy said. Last summer, hotel occupancy averaged in the mid-70 percent range. It is still unclear whether this summer's bookings will beat last year's.

Airlines say they have seen some recovery in reservations for the summer.

Over the past few days, as the war news brightened, Hawaiian Airlines has recorded an upturn in bookings, said spokesman Keoni Wagner.

"We had seen a fairly precipitous drop in bookings during the war period, much like all the other carriers, and in the last week or so that's been improving," Wagner said. "In the last couple of days especially, we've been very encouraged with the pace of bookings."

While the war cast a pall over the first few months of the year, "we expect a good summer," said Glenn Zander, chief executive of Aloha Airlines. "As people stop watching TV 24 hours a day, their thoughts are returning to travel."

Ticket sales suffered in March, but "we're starting to see ticket sales come back," Zander said.

Hawai'i is seeing some benefit from travelers who are putting off trips for Europe or Asia and visiting Hawai'i instead.

At Outrigger Enterprises Inc., chief executive David Carey said reservations for May are soft, "but initial indications for June look pretty good."

"The belief is that the summer is pretty strong assuming that SARS doesn't cause a problem here," Carey said. "I think it's pent-up demand. The worries of war will be over."

It is becoming even more difficult for businesses to predict how the tourism industry will fare in coming months as travelers wait later — sometimes only days before their trips — to book flights and hotel rooms.

According to a report earlier this month from the Travel Industry Association of America, 81 percent of Americans still planned to travel for leisure this spring and summer, but 46 percent had not yet started to make their plans.

But tourism executives hope the recent recovery in bookings signals a positive trend.

"At least the little chart is sloping up," Carey said. "I could sleep a lot better if we had a good summer."

Some of the gain is the result of travelers who canceled trips for March or April as the war began and are rescheduling for the summer months.

A survey conducted for the Hawai'i Visitors and Convention Bureau by NFO Plog Research from March 31 to April 9 showed that 22 percent of respondents changed travel plans since the beginning of the year. Of those, 33 percent postponed and 20 percent canceled leisure trips.

About 32 percent stayed closer to home and 16 percent changed from air travel to car travel. About 12 percent changed from an international to a domestic destination.

But in coming months SARS may be the biggest factor in visitors' travel decisions. The virus has infected thousands worldwide and has had a chilling effect on travel to China, Hong Kong and other affected countries. While it is difficult to gauge how much of an impact the scare has had on Hawai'i's tourism, any significant outbreak in the Islands could have a devastating effect.

Already travel from Japan to Hawai'i has plummeted since the start of the war in Iraq, and the diminished numbers have persisted through the news of SARS.

"In Japan they're not getting on airplanes. They're not going to airports. It doesn't matter where it is," Carey said.

If the SARS problem is resolved, the effects could dissipate quickly, Carey said. "But if cases keep turning up around the world, the question will be, 'How fast, how much?' "

Reach Kelly Yamanouchi at 535-2470, or at kyamanouchi@honoluluadvertiser.com.