EDITORIAL
Marginalizing Arafat: Will it bring peace?

The last-minute formulation of a Palestinian Cabinet by Prime Minister-designate Mahmoud Abbas has kept a U.S.-backed Middle East peace plan on track.

That the Cabinet includes members opposed by Yasser Arafat implies that his grip is slipping at last. But a suicide bomber connected to both Arafat and Abbas, who this week killed himself and a security guard outside an Israeli train station, suggests that terrorism may survive this leadership change.

Huge American presence

If the willingness and ability of Palestinian leaders to contain suicide bombings remain in doubt, is there another mechanism that could curb them? The answer may lie in the huge new American footprint in Iraq.

As he marshalled support for the war in February, Bush said: "Success in Iraq could also begin a new stage for Middle Eastern peace, and set in motion progress towards a truly democratic Palestinian state."

Among the aftereffects of the war was brief but severe intimidation of Syria, which the Bush administration warned against supporting terrorist organizations that threaten Israelis. The war also removed the threat against Israel of Iraqi tanks, against which Israelis had rationalized their usurpation of buffer zones in Palestinian territories.

Long before the war, neoconservative members of Bush's Defense Department had predicted that from their new base in Iraq, U.S. forces would quickly coerce Syria, Iran and the Saudi royal family to shift support from religious radicals to secular democratization and economic reform. Stripped of support for its terrorist groups, the Palestinians would quickly be forced to make peace on Israeli terms.

Islam itself would begin a process of modernization, and the region from Pakistan to Lebanon or even Algeria would begin transformation.

It's too early to proclaim any broad success for this vision, but already the forces it projects are visible. Perhaps the greatest threats to its success are the intransigence of the Israeli leadership of Ariel Sharon and Bush's own tendency to lose momentum.

Observers in Israel say Sharon is confident that his influence in Washington is strong enough to resist pressure from Bush to abandon settlements or occupied territory. Bush's so-called "road map" for peace, which foresees an Israel recognized by Arab states and an independent Palestine by 2005, say Sharon aides, was little more than an artifact to cement British support for war against Iraq.

Bush must be evenhanded

Meanwhile, Bush administration officials have repeatedly emphasized that while they will help, the Palestinians and Israelis must make peace themselves.

Middle Eastern Arabs are not likely to subscribe to Bush's vision for them if they see it as little more than a device to advance the aims of, and preserve the interests of, Sharon's Israel. Intense, sustained, evenhanded participation from Bush will be required if Israel and its neighbors are to find peace any time soon.