JERRY BURRIS

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

The chatter is already building over the re-election prospects of President Bush on the national level and Gov. Linda Lingle at home.

While Bush is up next year and Lingle not until 2006, their prospects are inevitably linked. For Lingle, the question will be how much she wishes to hitch her political wagon to Bush's star.

For Bush, the overarching issue will be whether the popularity he built following his impressive leadership after 9-11 and then the relatively successful wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will hold.

It will all depend on the economy. His father had huge positive ratings after Gulf War I but then fell apart after Democrats made political hay over economic troubles at home.

For Lingle, the major issue will be whether she has delivered on her message of change, which fundamentally means changing the political culture of this state. If people perceive that it is still political business as usual, she will have an uphill fight to gain another term.

But the economic issue is important in Hawai'i as well. When Lingle promised change, many people read that as change from a decade of economic stagnation.

They were counting on fresh leadership to bring new ideas and new approaches to the state's problems.

If that hasn't happened (and if it doesn't, it won't necessarily be Lingle's fault), then the change message will have lost much of its political oomph. Few voters will be ready to give the change message another four-year tryout.

But beyond these overriding themes is a second tier of issues that could have substantial impact on both national politics and politics here at home.

Many analysts have noted that Bush has moved steadily away from his campaign themes of "compassionate conservativism" at home and a policy of "humility" in foreign policy abroad. He has moved, whether by choice or necessity, toward a narrower political ideology that appeals to a particular wing of the Republican Party.

His comments on such issues as stem-cell research, abortion and affirmative action are aimed at particular audiences. His alleged indifference to certain interest groups (he has yet to meet with the NAACP, and he has distanced himself from the gay-oriented Log Cabin Republicans) suggests he is willing to give up certain voting blocs on the basis of ideology.

In Hawai'i, Lingle moved — at least during her campaign — in the opposite direction. She tempered her party's platform on such hot-button issues as abortion, she openly campaigned for the votes of Filipinos, Hawaiians and labor, which traditionally have not been sympathetic to the GOP. In short, she adopted the "big tent" theory of politics which says everyone can have a voice.

The challenge for Lingle, then, will be to decide whether she wants to position herself as a rising star of the national GOP (which she is) or to stick with the inclusive, moderate image she has struggled to build for the Republican Party back home.

The best guess is that despite the temptation to lash up with the big boys, Lingle will choose the path that plays best right here at home.