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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted at 12:09 p.m., Wednesday, August 6, 2003

Firms in survey see improving economy

By Sean Hao
Advertiser Staff Writer

Optimism at Hawai‘i firms is at its highest level since the first quarter of 2001, according to a survey of local businesses released today.

The index of the general business outlook, released by the Business Banking Council, reached 128 in the second quarter, up from 121 in the first quarter and equal to a pre-Sept. 11 peak reached in the first quarter of 2001.

The survey showed that 38 percent of businesses feel the economy will improve in the next year — the second-highest total since the group started conducting the twice-a-year survey in 1998. The high of 39 percent was reached in the second quarter of 2000.

The survey of 459 businesses was sponsored by American Savings Bank and conducted by QMark Research & Polling. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The numbers aren’t fully comparable because different businesses are surveyed each year.

Separate survey results targeting the construction industry showed similar levels of optimism. Slightly more than half (52 percent) of businesses that either work in the building industry or derive most of their sales from building expect revenues to grow in the next year or two. That’s comparable with 51 percent of businesses with similar sentiments in 2001.

The results appear to indicate that the booming construction industry, which is helping to hold up the economy amid declining tourism, continues to show near-term strength.

Nearly half (49 percent) of all businesses responding said they have had an increase in gross revenue.

“So revenue-wise, that means the economy is going up, and they’re optimistic that its going to get better in the coming year,” said Russell Young, president of contractor Albert C. Kobayashi Inc. “And we all know that profits follow revenues.”

Half of building industry respondents said revenues rose in the last year, compared with 38 percent in 2001.

On a note of caution, 42 percent of businesses surveyed reported having less disposable income, which was up sharply from 26 percent of businesses in the first quarter of this year.

The bulk of the interviews for the second quarter survey were conducted between July 3 and July 16.

Reach Sean Hao at shao@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8093.