He hired an insurance broker to shop around for cheaper rates, which dropped his monthly workers' compensation costs from $10,669 per month to $2,900.

He takes advantage of the safety training offered by his insurance company. And about every other week, the 14 employees of Rodrigues' All Tree Services tree trimming company undergo a safety briefing.

"We'll talk about the wood chippers, goggles, safety glasses, how to start a saw," Rodrigues said. "We've had pretty good luck, knock on wood. In tree trimming, you don't want injuries."

Other than pray that his employees remain injury free, there's little else that Rodrigues and the thousands of other Hawai'i small-business owners can do to control workers' compensation costs, according to insurance experts.

But other factors beyond Rodrigues' control could shape his rates.

In the next several weeks, the Hawai'i bureau of the National Council on Compensation Insurance Inc. will make its recommendations to the state insurance division about workers' compensation rates.

Carolyn Pearl, state relations executive of NCCI, said it's too early to say what the organization will recommend. And state Insurance Commissioner J.P. Schmidt said he won't speculate on what might happen to rates.

"By being part of the captive," Schmidt said, "they're able to have the protection of a larger group and the stability and better control of their costs."

Many issues still need to be resolved, Schmidt said, and he doesn't know when the captive insurance programs might begin.

In each of the past three years, Hawai'i's workers' compensation rates — driven by rising medical costs — have gone up an average of 3.5 percent in 2001; 4.6 percent in 2002 and 8 percent last year.

The increase varied according to the type of risks employees faced. Even similar businesses could have had different increases because of their histories of claims, said Bob Dove, CEO and president of Hawaii Employers Mutual Insurance Co., Inc. — better known as HEMIC.

But Dove said he believes workers' compensation costs in Hawai'i and around the Mainland have peaked and will stay relatively constant for the next year or two.

While medical costs seem to be pushing the increases, it's unclear what's causing the number of claims to fall.

"Experts don't even agree," Dove said. "Greater safety awareness, getting away from a labor-related economy and into a service-related economy ... "

But for companies centered around physical labor, the key seems to be workplace safety.

Dino Pertzoff, the owner of World Wide Window Cleaning, said he believes that workers' compensation insurance has him "basically over a barrel."

"You pay thousands and thousands of dollars a month," Pertzoff said. "If you ever use it, they'll probably triple it, quadruple it. My business would go under."

Some of his employees have filed claims for cuts, bruises and twisted joints. "But we've never had what you would call a real accident," Pertzoff said.

And he wants to keep it that way.

Pertzoff paid several hundred dollars for an in-house safety program through the International Window Cleaning Association.

He also attends free safety programs conducted by his insurance company. He said he listens to employees who bring up concerns about particular job sites or the condition of safety equipment.

Kevin Kondo can appreciate concerns about workers' compensation insurance as co-founder of Hawaii Bio-Waste Systems, Inc. — a medical waste treatment and disposal company — and as an attorney with his practice that focuses on civil litigation and business and corporate law.

Like other small-business owners, Kondo can only wait for NCCI's recommendation and the insurance commissioner's decision.