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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted on: Sunday, December 14, 2003

'Four Horsemen of the Internet' see rugged times

By Matt Krantz
USA Today

Before the Internet bubble burst, there were four companies that, in Wall Street's eyes, could do no wrong: Cisco, EMC, Sun Microsystems and Oracle.

Prosperous records, real products and soaring profits earned them the nickname, "the Four Horsemen of the Internet."

They've had a tough three years. Orders dried up as large corporate customers stopped buying products. Earnings plunged and, in Sun's case, disappeared.

Things seem to be getting better, with companies beginning to spend again and tech stocks leading the market's resurgence. But the four face their biggest chore: reasserting dominance in the tech industry's still unclear future.

The industry's track record isn't in their favor. Few tech powerhouses are able to regain their former glory when radical change sweeps the industry.

"Our bet is that most of those tech darlings of 1997 to 1999 will not be the darlings of 2004 to 2006," says money manager Donald Straszheim, who heads Straszheim Global Advisors.

Here's what happened to the Four Horsemen and what they are doing — and have to do — to try to stay in front:

EMC. When the tech downturn finally hit EMC, a leading maker of storage gear, it was vicious. Revenue and earnings had been skyrocketing until a modest decline in the second quarter of 2001. Then, with little warning, revenue plummeted nearly 50 percent in the third quarter that year.

CEO Joe Tucci still remembers his shock seeing the drop-off and trying to decide how to react. Beginning in the third quarter of 2001, he began a push to cut costs, fast. EMC cut 7,000 employees — about a third of its workforce — along with business travel costs and pricey office leases. EMC has cut annual overhead by about $1.4 billion a year as of the most recent quarter.

Tucci then shook up his management, hiring industry veterans. In perhaps its biggest post-crash move, EMC started selling computer storage devices that cost as little as $9,000. Suddenly, small and midsize firms, turned off by EMC's typical $250,000 device, could buy EMC products.

The strategy seems to be working. In the third quarter, EMC posted 648 percent higher profits on 20 percent higher revenue — by far the biggest improvement from the year-ago period of any of the Four Horsemen.

Oracle. The database software company was arguably the least hurt of the four in the downturn, but it was more because of fortunate timing than skill. Just before the bubble bust, CEO Larry Ellison declared that Oracle would save $1 billion a year by using its own software.

While viewed at the time as a publicity stunt to win customers, it was a lifesaver when the tech wreck occurred. Thanks to savings from using its own software, Oracle keeps 30 cents of every dollar of sales after paying overhead, which makes it the most profitable of the four. Also, Oracle's revenue didn't fall as much, because many customers write checks to it every year, in good times and bad, for maintenance and technical support.

But Oracle needs to get revenue growing again. That means persuading companies that buy its database software to buy its other products that manage back-office tasks such as accounting and sales-force management, says Kevin Landis, portfolio manager of the Firsthand Funds. So far, he says, it hasn't had much success at that.

Chief Financial Officer Jeff Henley, though, says Oracle has invested heavily on its software during the downturn and has products ready once businesses really start spending on technology again.

Cisco. In March 2000, the maker of networking gear became the world's most valuable company at $555 billion, passing Microsoft's $542 billion value. It was considered a defining moment for tech, because it showed networking had passed software as the industry's most important component.

But the Cisco celebration didn't last long. By 2001, its market value dropped by more than 60 percent as its revenue shriveled by a third. Distraught about having to lay off employees, CEO John Chambers had cut his quarter-million-dollar-a-year cash salary to $1.

The company has worked fast to get back on track. First, it got the research and development department working on projects with the biggest potential payoff. For instance, Cisco shelved half the projects it had going in the emerging area of Internet telephone calls. Despite those cuts, shipments of Internet phone equipment rose 65 percent from the second to the third quarter this year.

Cisco has "done what was needed to do to get fighting trim," Landis says.

Sun. If there's one considered a long shot now, it's Sun. It's still losing money — $286 million in its most recent quarter. Sun says its cash stash of $2.5 billion and stable of products will make it a survivor.

But many say Sun's problems are much deeper. Its dominance in the business of selling high-end computer servers is threatened by the increasing power of cheaper machines made by the likes of Dell. And it continues to spread its resources to develop everything from microprocessors to operating systems, while its rivals focus on one area of technology.

"Cisco got bounced around but never fell off (the horse). EMC fell off and got back on. Oracle is still trying to get back on," says Steve Milunovich, tech strategist at Merrill Lynch. But "Sun fell off and got trampled," he says.

It'll take years to find out which of the four have what's needed to beat the odds and regain their glory. But some investors are writing off the Four Horsemen, saying small tech companies you might have never heard of are where the future lies. "There are plenty of companies in the sweet spot," says Jordan Kimmel, market strategist at Brookstreet Securities. "But it's not the old guard."