He sees it in the number of withdrawals from the almost 550 ATM machines he oversees for Bank of Hawaii.

More tourists, more military people and more construction workers mean more ATM transactions.

And by most indications — including ATM use — 2004 is shaping up to be a good year for Hawai'i's economy.

Expected gains in jobs and personal income, along with continued low interest rates, should translate into more borrowing by growing businesses and homebuyers. That benefits banks, which along with insurance and other financial services, account for more than 16,000 jobs in the state.

Many of those are well-paid, technology-intensive jobs with opportunities to advance — just the sort that the state's policymakers want to see grow as they steer Hawai'i away from its longtime dependence on tourism.

For Makahilahila, 44, who was vacuuming cars at McKinley Car Wash just out of high school, the bank job was his big break.

"It's been my college," he said.

Makahilahila was hired as a vault custodian at Bank of Hawaii in 1977 and worked his way up to senior vice president.

"The thing I appreciate most is a lot of opportunity for advancement," Makahilahila said. Climbing the corporate ladder has helped him support his five children, including two in college and two in private schools.

Bank hours were the attraction for Carnation Newalu, 53, when she first joined a bank in 1975. Her late husband, Edward Newalu, was a construction worker. Carnation worked 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. and would take their two boys to school in the morning. Edward worked 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. and would pick the boys up in the evenings.

"It was convenient," Carnation said. "We had Saturdays, Sundays and holidays off."

Now that the boys are grown, Carnation has a whole new reason to appreciate bankers' hours. In September, she took in six foster children to help a relative.

Carnation rises every day at 5:30 a.m. and gets the kids washed, dressed, fed and off to their various schools in Kane'ohe. She starts her job as customer service representative at the Kailua branch of First Hawaiian Bank at 8 a.m. She leaves the bank at 4:30 p.m., gathers up the kids and begins the evening routine of homework, dinner and cleaning.

In the true tradition of 'ohana, Carnation's nephew comes over the Pali most evenings after work to help the kids with homework, and once a month, a cousin from Maui flies in and rents a van to shuttle the children to school, doctors' appointments and other activities.

While Carnation and Makahilahila have benefited from working at banks, their jobs are by no means stagnant.

Carnation is learning about "cross-selling" and Makahilahila is working on the next-generation ATM, which could dispense movie tickets, airline tickets and investment information. Cross-selling and advanced technology are two major trends in banking.

"Most banks have two or three products — revenue-producing products — per customer," said Mike McMahon, an analyst who follows the Bank of Hawaii for Sandler O'Neill & Partners. "Going forward, what they are going to look at is having deeper cross-selling."

What all banks are hoping will help them sell more products and keep employment stable, is a fast-growing state economy.

"We're very bullish about 2004," said Don Horner, president and chief operating officer at First Hawaiian Bank.

Bankruptcies are at the lowest Horner has seen in 15 years, and there are more high-rise condominiums going up now than in the past six years combined, he said.

With the national economy also improving, the Federal Reserve could decide to raise interest rates next year.

Horner said that may not be a bad thing. A rate increase would probably not slow borrowing much because rates would still be near record lows, and it would help people living on fixed incomes, he said.

A looming question is whether the real-estate boom that has powered profits at most banks for the past year will continue.

Constance Lau, president and chief executive officer of American Savings, a subsidiary of Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc., said she expects demand will stay high.

"People in Hawai'i are still very interested in buying new homes," Lau said. That should help make up for the drop in refinancing that accompanied a rise in mortgage rates in the past few months, she said.

While the top three banks — First Hawaiian, Bank of Hawaii and American Savings — prepare to take advantage of the growing state economy, the No. 4 and 5 banks are locked in a takeover battle that could finally be settled next year.

Central Pacific Financial Corp., parent of Central Pacific Bank, has won federal regulatory approval of its hostile bid to take over City Bank parent, CB Bancshares. The state will weigh in on the issue by Feb. 18. If it approves, then it will be up to the City Bank shareholders to decide.

At a public hearing earlier this month, the chief concern raised by City Bank employees was whether their jobs would be cut.

"I do not want to lose my job," wrote Debora Ohtani, a 25-year City Bank employee.

Central Pacific CEO Clint Arnoldus, responding to the concern, promised that no one would be laid off after the merger, although hiring would be frozen.

The concern for protecting bank jobs is not surprising, given how sought-after they are in Hawai'i.

Just ask Makahilahila, who made Bank of Hawaii senior vice president with only a high school diploma, how valuable bank jobs can be.