THE RISING EAST
Risk of terrorist attack escalates to high probability
By Richard Halloran
Ten years ago, the risks of terrorist or military assault with chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons was considered one of low probability but serious consequences if it happened.
Today, that risk has become one of high probability and enormous consequences. "Uncertainty," said a specialist in such weapons, "has become a certainty." Much of that risk is in Asia, notably from Iraq, North Korea, and terrorists in South and Southeast Asia. Beyond that, said Capt. Joseph Hughart of the U.S. Public Health Service, "we know that the threat from (these weapons) exists worldwide, not just in the Middle East."
CBRNE, an acronym that lumps together chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high-explosive weapons, is the new buzzword on the block and is sometimes pronounced see-burn. It seems to be taking over gradually from WMD, or weapons of mass destruction.
Specialists in CBRNE gathered in Honolulu last week to address representatives of humanitarian and disaster-relief agencies that might be operating near "hot zones" where CBRNE attacks had taken place. They included Save the Children, International Medical Corps, Church World Service, United Nations High Commission on Refugees, International Committee of the Red Cross and Catholic Relief Services.
The specialists had several messages for the relief agencies: Protect your staff so that they can continue functioning, don't rush into the hot zone to add to the confusion, and prepare to minister to thousands of refugees.
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A rule of thumb says that for every person killed in CBRNE attack, 10 will be injured, and a thousand more will be displaced from their homes, often fleeing with nothing more than the clothes on their backs.
Staff Sgt. Raymond Lara takes part in nuclear, biological and chemical warfare training at Holloman Air Force Base in Alamagordo, N.M. The possibility of such an attack has risen considerably.
In its preparation for war with Iraq, the Pentagon assumes that Saddam Hussein will employ chemical and possibly biological weapons, or that chemical or biological agents will be released by the U.S. bombing of storage depots. The United States would seek to burn off poisonous agents with napalm (bombs filled with jelled gasoline) but cannot be sure all would be destroyed.
Therefore, the Pentagon is planning to handle tens of thousands of refugees, to decontaminate them, to provide food, water, shelter and medical care.
The conference here was arranged by the Center of Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance, with headquarters in Hawai'i, in conjunction with the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance in Washington, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and the American Council for Voluntary International Action.
Under the ground rules for the conference, speakers may not be identified.
Capt. Hughart, who began his career as a Navy corpsman serving with the Marines, was an exception who agreed to be quoted.
Hughart pointed to attacks mounted by al-Qaida, such as the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
He added other assaults not so well known, such as an attempt to poison the water supply of the U.S. Embassy in Rome, a biological attack in London, and a failed attempt to train an American named Jose Padilla in making a "dirty bomb" with radioactive material.
North Korea, Hughart said, "has an advanced chemical-warfare capability that includes cyanide and blister, nerve and vomiting agents. The North Koreans have targeted South Korean food and water supplies with anthrax, cholera, plague and yellow-fever biological agents.
No one paid much attention when North Korea agreed to accept 20,000 tons of radioactive waste from Taiwan. Hughart said, however, that it has been turned into a radiological threat buried just north of the demilitarized zone that divides the two Koreas.
In Southeast Asia, there have been high-explosive bombings near U.S. forces in the Philippines and the recent bombing of a night club on Bali that killed scores of tourists.
Elsewhere in the Pacific, a letter filled with cyanide arrived at the U.S. Embassy in New Zealand, and a nerve-agent threat was uncovered on Guam.
Then there is the potential hazard of the world's 476 nuclear reactors, either from terrorists seizing one or attacking one to release radiation.
About 100 of those reactors are in Asia, with 23 more under construction and 39 planned.
In addition, there are 56 research reactors in 14 countries in the Asia-Pacific region that may be vulnerable to terrorist assault.
All in all, the sobering presentations during the conference left the audience in a somber mood.
Richard Halloran is a former New York Times correspondent in Asia and Washington. Reach him at oranhall@hawaii.rr.com.
