By Richard Halloran

As the U.S. hurtles toward the brink of war with Iraq and North Korea, the confrontation bears a striking resemblance to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Therein lie lessons that might well be read in Washington, Baghdad and Pyong-yang.

Then, as now, the issue is nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union was deploying nuclear-tipped missiles to Cuba, 90 miles from U.S. territory. President John F. Kennedy demanded that they be withdrawn. Today, Iraq is seeking and North Korea has acquired nuclear arms; both also have chemical and biological weapons. President Bush has declared all of that intolerable.

Then, as now, the U.S. mobilized for war. President Kennedy ordered a naval blockade of Cuba and preparations for air strikes and ground invasion of Cuba. President Bush has ordered land, sea and air forces to deploy around the Persian Gulf, and has called 150,000 reserves to active duty. President Kennedy was not bluffing then, and President Bush is not bluffing now.

Then, as now, the U.S. faces an imposing adversary. The Soviet Union had massive conventional forces poised to invade Western Europe. Today, Iraq and North Korea appear to be coordinating their strategy, turning their defiance of the United States into one conflict on two widely separated fronts. President Bush has tried to shove the dispute with North Korea into the future, but the North Koreans have refused to be ignored and have only increased the belligerence of their diplomacy by diatribe.

The North Korean satellite rocket "Paektusan I" was test-launched at an undisclosed facility in North Hamg-yong Province, North Korea, on Aug. 31, 1998. Top U.S. officials fear that North Korea has an untested ballistic missile capable of reaching the western United States. Korea News Service via Associated Press

Then, as now, miscalculation is the most severe threat to resolving the quarrel. Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, the president's brother and confidant, wrote: "There was always a chance of error, of mistake, of miscalculation or misunderstanding." Surely the same can be said of the current confrontation, which is even more complicated than the crisis of 1962.

Then, as now, Britain was America's staunchest ally. Prime Minister Harold Macmillan has written that he had many secret conversations with President Kennedy and that his position "was one of complete support for the president at every stage." Prime Minister Tony Blair has followed that precedent with no known deviation.

There are differences, of course. France allied itself with the United States in 1962; it has joined with Russia to oppose the United States now. The missile crisis blew up and was over in 13 days; the confrontation with Iraq and North Korea has been brewing for many months. President Kennedy ruled out a pre-emptive strike on Cuba. President Bush has made it an option.

Perhaps most important, President Kennedy had a limited, clearly defined objective: Get the Soviet missiles out of Cuba without a war. Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara has written that the strategy was to apply pressure "against the Soviets without ever pushing them to the point where they were forced to an irrational, suicidal, spasm response."

President Bush has defined part of his objective: Force Iraq and North Korea to give up their weapons of mass destruction. But whether his objectives go beyond that is far from clear, notably whether Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Kim Jong Il of North Korea must go, perhaps to a haven in an Arab nation for Saddam or into retirement in Russia or China for Kim, has been left in ambiguity.

In the end, President Kennedy's strategy worked and the Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev, backed down after President Kennedy gave the Soviets a way out that did not humiliate them. Chairman Khrushchev, to his credit, came to understand that he had underestimated Americans.

During a meeting in the White House at a turning point in the crisis, Secretary of State Dean Rusk turned to the national security adviser, McGeorge Bundy, and whispered: "We were eyeball to eyeball, and the other fellow just blinked."

Today, President Bush is eyeball to eyeball with Saddam Hussein and Kim Jong Il, but nobody seems to have blinked yet.

Richard Halloran formerly was a New York Times correspondent in Asia and Washington. Reach him at oranhall@hawaii.rr.com.