Forecasting Grammy night

By Derek Paiva
Advertiser Entertainment Writer

Do I accept Norah Jones' irresistible invitation to come away with her comely crooning on Sunday night? Or do I come on up for "The Rising" with Bruce Springsteen, given that his much more deserving works, "Born In The U.S.A." and "The River," were passed over for Album of the Year?

With eight artists tied at five each for most nominations this year, one has to wonder why Grammy's nominating committees had to go and make things so complicated for award pundits.

Here's who I'm predicting will take home the golden gramophone this year, who I think really deserves it, and who shoulda been a contenda in Grammy's top categories.

Album Of The Year

• Nominees: "Home," Dixie Chicks; "The Eminem Show," Eminem; "Come Away With Me," Norah Jones; "Nellyville," Nelly; "The Rising," Bruce Springsteen
• Who will win: "The Rising," Bruce Springsteen. He's a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductee and poet laureate of the working class who has never won a Grammy in this category. He also recorded an album that many said captured the nation's post-9/11 mourning and rebirth like no other. You do the math.
• Who deserves to win: "Come Away With Me," Norah Jones. Eminem's CD was good, but wasn't his best. Springsteen's CD has been overrated from Day One. Nelly? Please! The Chicks came close, but Jones' debut still makes me swoon.
• Should've been nominated: "Yankee Hotel Foxtrot," Wilco. As good as it is (and boy, is it good), Jeff Tweedy & Co.'s eclectic opus deserved a nom simply for exposing the truly misguided music industry executive machinery that almost buried it.

Record Of The Year

• Nominees: "A Thousand Miles," Vanessa Carlton; "Without Me," Eminem; "Don't Know Why," Norah Jones; "Dilemma," Nelly Featuring Kelly Rowland; "How You Remind Me," Nickelback.
• Who will win/Who deserves to win: "Without Me," Eminem. Just a bleached hair ahead of Jones (who stands the only chance of the four other noms for an upset here), Eminem's summer love song to himself was as memorable and insanely clever a hit single as it gets. I'd be as happy as Moby if Jones won instead, though.
• Should've been nominated: "Can't Get You Out Of My Head," Kylie Minogue. Remember, this isn't an award for songwriting skills, folks.

Song Of The Year

• Nominees: "Complicated," Avril Lavigne & The Matrix, songwriters (Avril Lavigne); "Don't Know Why," Jesse Harris, songwriter (Norah Jones); "The Rising," Bruce Springsteen, songwriter (Bruce Springsteen); "A Thousand Miles," Vanessa Carlton, songwriter (Vanessa Carlton); "Where Were You (When The World Stopped Turning)," Alan Jackson, songwriter (Alan Jackson).
• Who will win/Who deserves to win: "Don't Know Why," Norah Jones. Jesse Harris penned a timeless modern classic that many a jazz chanteuse will be striking a mood with for years to come. None of the other nominated songs will even be remembered post-2003.
• Should've been nominated: "Without Me," Eminem. When is Grammy going to recognize Em's amazing lyrical wordplay as great modern songwriting?

New Artist

• Nominees: Ashanti, Michelle Branch, Norah Jones, Avril Lavigne, John Mayer.
• Who will win/Who deserves to win: Norah Jones. Lavigne has been mentioned as an extreme long shot, but no one comes close to matching Jones's chances here.
• Should've been nominated: Vanessa Carlton. Unfairly lumped with Lavigne and Branch for young pop songstress most likely to derail Britney Spears' music career, Carlton is actually more genuinely gifted than both put together.

Pop Vocal Album

• Nominees: "Come Away With Me," Norah Jones; "Let Go," Avril Lavigne; "Rock Steady," No Doubt; "Missundaztood," Pink; "Britney," Britney Spears
• Who will win: "Come Away With Me," Norah Jones. With Springsteen's Album of the Year Grammy being all but placed in his front-row seat before the show, Jones will be handed this Grammy for her album as consolation.
• Who deserves to win: "Missundaztood," Pink. Jones' album is superb, but Pink's revelatory manifesto proved she was a lot more than her dance-pop roots hinted at.
• Should've been nominated: "Be Not Nobody," Vanessa Carlton. C'mon, Grammy! Britney Spears?

Rock Album

• Nominees: "When I Was Cruel," Elvis Costello; "C'mon, C'mon," Sheryl Crow; "Dreamland," Robert Plant; "The Rising," Bruce Springsteen; "Head On Straight," Tonic
• Who will win: "The Rising, Bruce Springsteen. Come on up for the umpteenth time tonight, Bruce! Whether you deserve it or not.
• Who deserves to win: "When I Was Cruel," Elvis Costello. This brilliant return to Costello's visceral punk roots and wickedly pointed lyricism was rock's real comeback of the year.
• Should've been nominated: "Songs For The Deaf," Queens of the Stone Age. Loud, arty and a lot more fun than listening to Robert Plant age.

Alternative Music Album

• Nominees: "Sea Change," Beck; "Walking With Thee," Clinic; "A Rush Of Blood To The Head," Coldplay; "Cruel Smile," Elvis Costello & The Imposters; "Behind The Music," The Soundtrack Of Our Lives .
• Who will win: "Sea Change," Beck. An overrated work by a perennial Grammy fave. Plus, Grammy voters love thinking they're hip.
• Who deserves to win: "A Rush Of Blood To The Head," Coldplay. The album Grammy voters would pick if they really were hip.
• Should've been nominated: "Yoshimi Battles The Pink Robots," Flaming Lips. Like Coldplay's, one of the best CDs of 2002.

R&B Album

• Nominees: "Voyage To India," India.Arie; "Better Days," Joe; "Juslisen (Just Listen)," Musiq; "Instant Vintage," Raphael Saadiq; "The Way I Feel," Remy Shand
• Who will win: "Voyage To India," India.Arie. Grammy voter to his/herself when filling ballot: "Hey, wasn't she nominated for, like, 20 Grammys last year?"
• Who deserves to win: "Juslisen" Musiq. Funk, gospel, and old-school R&B props to the legends layered with foundation-busting new school grooves and an amazing vocal range.
• Should've been nominated: "Mahogany Soul," Angie Stone. Not flashy. Hardly sassy. But oh, the drama!

Contemporary R&B Album

• Nominees: "Ashanti," Ashanti; "Full Moon," Brandy; "Faithfully," Faith Evans; "Floetic," Floetry; "Cookie: The Anthropological Mixtape," Meshell Ndegeocello.
• Who will win/Who deserves to win: "Ashanti," Ashanti. Though more deserved for Murder Inc. mastermind Irv Gotti's way with a phat groove, wicked sample and choice of guest artist than Ashanti's subpar vocalizing.
• Should've been nominated: "Southern Hummingbird," Tweet. Far from perfect, but producers Missy "Misdemeanor" Elliott and Timbaland kept Tweet's debut oh so sweet.

Rap Album

• Nominees: "The Eminem Show," Eminem; "Word Of Mouf," Ludacris; "Tarantula," Mystikal; "Nellyville," Nelly; "Diary Of A Sinner: 1st Entry," Petey Pablo .
• Who will win/Who deserves to win: "The Eminem Show," Eminem. It sold 8 million copies, and critics loved it, too. Grammy can't afford to ignore Em here.
• Should've been nominated: "Fantastic Damage," El-P. A glimpse of hip-hop future, or an infinitely inventive offshoot.

Country Album

• Nominees: "Home," Dixie Chicks; "Drive," Alan Jackson; "The Great Divide," Willie Nelson; "Man With A Memory," Joe Nichols; "Halos & Horns," Dolly Parton;
• Who will win/Who deserves to win: "Home, Dixie Chicks." Well, it couldn't have received a nom for Album of the Year with anything resembling warmed over Nashville leftovers now, could it?
• Should've been nominated: "Blacklisted," Neko Case. Blacklisted? From a nomination here, maybe. But this gem will all but make you believe Patsy Cline has been reincarnated as an turn of the millennium alt-country torch singer.