Visitor count still can't rival pre-9/11
By David Butts
Advertiser Staff Writer
January visitor numbers for Hawai'i, released yesterday, showed a continuation of a troubling pattern for the state's leading industry — arrivals are up from a year ago but not back to the pre-Sept. 11 levels.
Last month saw 517,141 visitors, up 11.6 percent from the 463,357 arrivals in January 2002. While the gain is encouraging for those in the tourism business, last month's total was 6.8 percent below January 2001. A slowing economy and the threat of war in Iraq have combined to keep tourism from returning to the recent peaks of 1999, 2000 and early 2001.
"We have sort of closed the gap, but not completely filled it," said David Carey, chief executive of Outrigger Enterprises and a Hawai'i Tourism Authority board member.
The incremental improvement in arrivals since Sept. 11 has taken a back seat to fears that tourism will suffer a steep drop if a war begins in Iraq.
Chuck Gee, dean emeritus of the University of Hawai'i School of Travel Industry Management, predicts that a war with Iraq could lead to a drop of 25 percent to 50 percent in visitors.
Carey said some in the tourism industry are wondering whether the number of travelers will return to pre-Sept. 11 levels any time soon. "They are saying travel habits may have changed," he said.
The change is being felt in Hawai'i this winter. The historical pattern for the winter tourist season was an influx during the Christmas and New Year's holidays, followed by a slow couple weeks in mid-January and then a rush as Mainland residents sought relief from the cold winter.
"That pattern is not happening," Carey said. "January was OK for us, but February has been pretty soft. It is nothing like what winter used to be.
"What is a little bit of a tragedy for Hawai'i is they are having one of the worst winters and we haven't had the floodgates open. People aren't traveling yet."
Ted Liu, the recently named director of the state Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, pointed out that the visitors who do come stayed longer in the Islands in January — 10.55 days versus 10.51 a year ago — and that led to a 12 percent increase in total visitor days.
The National Football League's Pro Bowl game, which was played on Feb. 2, drew about 18,000 visitors to the Islands, most of whom arrived in the last week of January. That improved the January count on a year-on-year basis. Last year the Pro Bowl was delayed until the second week of February.
In the post-Sept. 11 world, the Pro Bowl effect is more noticeable, Carey said. "The Pro Bowl was a nice boost and it was noticed."
January saw a 17 percent increase in international arrivals from a year ago. Japanese arrivals climbed 15.4 percent with a strong recovery in Japanese coming for conventions or on incentive trips. Japanese group travel was severely curtailed after Sept. 11 when tour companies feared another attack might leave their clients stranded.
