Iraq agrees to destroy missiles
By Maggie Farley
Los Angeles Times
UNITED NATIONS — Iraq agreed "in principle" yesterday to destroy its proscribed Al Samoud 2 missiles, but it asked to meet with a U.N. team before proceeding and warned that it might not begin destroying the weapons before tomorrow's deadline, imposed by chief inspector Hans Blix.
In a short acceptance letter to Blix, Iraqi presidential adviser Gen. Amir Saadi complained that the destruction order was "unjust" and that its timing was aimed "to justify an aggression against Iraq." Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld immediately dismissed the offer, calling it a typical example of Saddam Hussein's tendency to offer meaningless concessions at the last minute.
The destruction of the missiles has become a crucial test case of Iraqi compliance with U.N. demands that it disarm. If Iraq misses tomorrow's deadline, Blix could make an emergency report to the Security Council that could lead them to find Iraq in "material breach" of the resolution mandating Iraq's disarmament. That finding could trigger military action.
Iraq has yet to provide "full-fledged cooperation" with U.N. inspectors, Blix said this week. In a draft of the 17-page written report Blix will submit to the Security Council today, he concludes that "Iraq could have made greater efforts" in proving it has no weapons of mass destruction, and disarmament results are "very limited" so far.
Blix will meet with the council next Thursday or Friday to answer their questions.
Blix's assessment and Baghdad's offer on the missiles came as the Pentagon reported that an Iraqi Republican Guard division had started to pull out of positions in the northern part of Iraq and was moving south, perhaps toward Baghdad, signaling that Saddam may be taking up defensive positions for a U.S. invasion.
Rumsfeld declined to comment on the Iraqi troop movements, except to say that the Pentagon views such shifts with interest. But a U.S. defense intelligence official said Iraq's movements were not a surprise. "It's been speculated he is going to reposition his forces around Baghdad," in an attempt to draw the United States into bloody urban warfare, the official said.
In the letter to Blix, Saddam adviser Saadi asked to meet with a U.N. team to establish a timetable, technical and procedural criteria for destruction of the missiles. Blix's deputy, Dimitri Perricos, arrived in Baghdad yesterday to oversee the demolition of the missiles, their engines and all component parts.
Even if Iraq does destroy the dozens of Al Samoud missiles, the Bush administration is downplaying such a move as too little, too late, and portraying the cache as "the tip of the iceberg."
"They refuse to cooperate, don't cooperate, drag it out, wait until someone finally nails them with a little piece of the whole puzzle," Rumsfeld said. "I don't see any change in the pattern at all. They have not decided to cooperate."
The U.N. inspection team in the country found that Iraq had altered the Al Samouds in violation of U.N. restrictions in a way that would allow it to go beyond its mandated 93-mile limit. The U.N. imposed the limit in 1991 as part of the Persian Gulf War cease-fire agreement to ensure that Iraq had no missiles that could reach Kuwait City.
In 13 of 40 test-firings witnessed by inspectors, the missiles exceeded the range limit, if only by 20 miles. Iraq maintains that the missiles would not travel beyond the limit when weighted down with fuel, a full payload and guidance system.
But the inspectors are not just concerned about the 20 miles. The missile's alterations suggest that Iraq may have been trying to develop a longer-range missile that could hit Iran or Israel, missile experts say.
Inspectors found that Iraq had expanded the diameter of the missiles from 750 millimeters to 760 — violating the U.N. limit of 600 millimeters. The larger barrel could accommodate two side-by-side engines and double or triple the missile's range, said a U.N. official.
Independent analysis by former U.N. inspector and missile expert Tim McCarthy, now at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, showed that the Al Samoud 2 could also be used as a second-stage missile to be launched from a Scud-type weapon. Iraq had pursued such a design before the Gulf War, and it can be used to deliver chemical or biological agents.
"The diameter itself is very significant," McCarthy said. "It's the same as a Styx — a Chinese anti-ship missile — and has a radar seeker that can be changed into an altitude fuse, which is required for dispersing chemical and biological weapons."
Blix's report, however, will not include outside research. The early draft stuck to the facts provided by Iraq that the missiles had been altered, exceeded the U.N. limits and were ordered to be destroyed.
In the written report, Blix provides several examples of substantial cooperation as well as disappointments, but his conclusions do not point to outright success or failure in Iraqi compliance. Based on similar previews, U.S. officials had expected his last council update, on Feb. 14, to be negative, but it turned out to be unexpectedly neutral.
