ANALYSIS
Democratic legislators poised to follow Lingle

By Lynda Arakawa
Advertiser Capitol Bureau

The Democrats may control the Legislature, but Republican Gov. Linda Lingle definitely has changed the game.

Events at last week's opening of the 2003 legislative session clearly show that Democratic leaders are in reactive mode, responding to Lingle's agenda on a broad range of issues, from transportation to tax credits, with talk about their own agenda barely rising above a whisper.

Expect to see more of the same this week with Lingle's State of the State address.

Some examples:

• Senate President Robert Bunda, D-22nd (North Shore, Wahiawa), appeared to respond to Lingle's interest in unsnarling O'ahu's commuter traffic. He proposed a new look at a light-rail mass transit system.
• House Speaker Calvin Say, D-20th (St. Louis Hts., Palolo, Wilhelmina Rise), offered an alternative to Lingle's idea for seven locally elected school boards: community-based advisory boards for each school complex.
• Say announced the state would pay the $10 million it owes the Office of Hawaiian Affairs, an issue Lingle had hammered on repeatedly in her campaign and again when she personally committed the state to paying the bill.
• House Democrats proposed a job-creation tax credit to stimulate the economy. Tax incentives are a centerpiece of Lingle's economic agenda.

How long this new dynamic will last is uncertain.

House and Senate leaders have said repeatedly that they would work with Lingle and give her initiatives fair treatment. But some Democratic lawmakers also acknowledge their awkward position when the time comes for a vote. They and other political observers see the risk in opposing Lingle, even when it is based strictly on an initiative's merits.

"There was an advantage when the governor was a Democrat, and you reacted to his proposals candidly — without worrying whether someone would say it's a partisan reaction, versus you just don't like the proposal," said Senate Majority Leader Colleen Hanabusa, D-21st (Nanakuli, Makaha). "We don't have that anymore."

In the past eight years, the Legislature had no trouble shooting down ideas by Gov. Ben Cayetano, and leaders say they will review Lingle's ideas with equal scrutiny. But Lingle appears to have more political ammunition than her predecessors.

Unlike Democratic governors, she can blame failed proposals on the all-encompassing "partisan politics," a weapon Republican lawmakers have used with success in Honolulu and Washington.

Lingle's advantages also stretch beyond party lines. She is popular with the public and was elected by a significant margin. Her communication strategies are sophisticated. She is a powerful lone voice for her agenda, while the 56 Democratic lawmakers will find it difficult to assemble behind a single spokesperson, let alone a single issue.

"It really is a different set of rules," University of Hawai'i political science professor Neal Milner said. "The governor does have a bully pulpit. ... You don't have the Legislature to rely on. But what she has is a lot of skills talking to the public, and I think that she has a honeymoon period that people are ready to grant her.

"You can make her look good by opposing her, and you can make her look good by going along with her."

Lingle will outline her agenda in her State of the State speech on Tuesday.

Ultimately, Lingle plans to help oust Democratic lawmakers in future elections, just as they hope to replace her with a fellow Democrat.

"The Democrats really feel hamstrung because of the party label," said one veteran Democrat who did not want to be identified for fear of straining relations with the new governor. "There's a feeling from the administration that she's just going to roll over the Democrats."

House Majority Whip Brian Schatz, D-25th (Makiki, Tantalus), dismissed that concern.

"We all draw lines in the sand in campaign season, and then we find a way to work together when it's not election time," he said. "It's the nature of our business, and I don't think any of us will be taking it personally. We shouldn't reject any idea just because it comes from one party or the other, and we shouldn't accept any idea just because it comes from somebody who's popular. ... All of us together are on the line, (and) I think we have to look at what's best for the people of Hawai'i, and not what's best for our chances of re-election."

Still, former Democratic lawmaker Jim Shon said the new political dynamic means lawmakers and the administration might be less willing to share information out of fear it could be used against them — a concern that did not exist before.

"People will be very cautious, and I suspect less sharing of open information — at least initially — until people find out if being open will be punished," Shon said.

" 'I was candid with you, but now I see it shows up in a criticism of the Legislature in general.' Everyone here is certainly aware of the possibility that one agenda is 'Get more Republicans elected.' "

Greg Gaydos, associate professor of political science at Hawai'i Pacific University, said he suspected the Democratic leadership "more or less are going to go along" with Lingle's initiatives, because they have not galvanized around any particular issues or leader.

He likened the situation to what's happened in Washington since the midterm elections, when the Democrats lost their majority in the Senate.

"The Democrats there are trying to figure out how to deal with (President) Bush," Gaydos said. "Locally, they're having to deal with a lot of soul-searching, asking where they're going and what they stand for.

"They have leaders, but I don't see the strong, determined leader like Newt Gingrich was the strong lightning rod for the Republicans in 1994," Gaydos said.

Cayetano said Democrats should give the public more credit, and find better ways to communicate with them.

"Both the Senate and House should beef up their public information capability," he said.

Hanabusa agreed communication is critical.

"We have to articulate our positions — and I believe we did that with Gov. Cayetano," Hanabusa said. "I'm hoping that the public realizes ... when it looks back that the Legislature never rubber-stamped the governor of the majority party either."

Say said the Democrats are focused specifically on public education, restoring integrity in government and stimulating economic growth — the same top priorities as the governor.

"It may be considered her three main planks, but they're also the Democrats' planks, so we're in line, conceptually," Say said.

The difference is in how to proceed.

House Minority Leader Galen Fox, R-23rd (Waikiki, Ala Moana, Kaka'ako), said the Democrats — though they have the same priorities as Lingle — are stumbling because "they look at change as this most incremental move forward, because that's basically what they're used to. But the people have lost patience. They want real change."

Fox and other Republicans said the House majority package released last week lacked substance or specifics.

"They've got the issues right, and they are moving in the direction of doing something better," Fox said. "But I thought the majority package was remarkably thin when you step back and look at it."

Cayetano said Democrats should return to issues that put them in control of the Legislature in 1954, and focus on public education, creating more jobs and securing the social safety net for the poor and disadvantaged.

"Most important," he said, "they should stand for something."

Capitol bureau reporter Gordon Y.K. Pang contributed to this report. Reach Lynda Arakawa at larakawa@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8070.