COMMENTARY
Take a guess here at what Hawai'i's new year holds

By John Griffin
Former editor of The Advertiser's editorial pages and a frequent contributor

You can't predict the future, but it's stimulating for people to explore its possibilities.

In 2003, will Gov. Linda Lingle be able to forge a new sense of unity with Democrats? With UH President Evan Dobelle? Advertiser library photo • Dec. 3, 2002

So with a nod to other columnists who have long used this device, "The answers, please":

1. In 2003, Hawai'i will a) benefit from a kinder eye from the Bush administration, b) see efforts to establish an updated version of the old Big Five business-Republican machine, c) face more tough economic realities, d) be hit by a tsunami, hurricane or major flank eruption of Mauna Loa.

2. Politics will see a) Democrats remaining divided in their present fiefdoms, b) Democrats banding together, under U.S. Sen. Dan Inouye, looking for new leaders and new-century versions of the old New Deal magic, c) confident Republicans on a roll, d) Republicans dividing among Lingle moderates and Bush-type right-wingers.

3. Gov. Linda Lingle will a) establish some unique unity with Democrats running the state Legislature, almost an interim coalition, b) as an ex-mayor, get some lessons in state-level politics, c) find a truce with University of Hawai'i President Evan Dobelle on issues such as improving education, economic development and Hawai'i's Asia-Pacific role, d) deal with reports she plans to get married, either in private or in the Capitol atrium with the public invited.

4. The Democratic-dominated Legislature will a) improve as a positive exercise of divided government, b) be split and coup-prone as it was last time we had a Republican governor 40 years ago, c) see more promising state leaders emerge and maybe challenge the old guard, d) find itself again lured toward the false promise of legalized gambling as a boost for the economy.

5. Honolulu's government will a) continue to be run by a lame-duck mayor in legal limbo who has gone from high-profile gubernatorial favorite to scandal-plagued recluse, b) face tougher and more costly financial problems than the public realizes, c) see a leadership void in its inexperienced City Council, d) both benefit and be sometimes hurt by the escalating campaigns of former council members for mayor in 2004.

6. Hawai'i's economy will a) continue to struggle as the national picture remains uncertain, b) benefit from both a war and Bush efforts to get ready for the 2004 re-election campaign, c) creep toward more diversity with a mix of big projects (UH medical school, biotech research, etc.) and small new-economy businesses that could grow, d) see more diversification into different kinds of tourism, education and culture, sports, visits to farms, etc.

7. Former Gov. Ben Cayetano will a) learn the laundry business, b) help wife Vicky campaign for Honolulu mayor in 2004, c) establish a law firm specializing in legislative lobbying and dispute resolution in labor matters, d) join the UH faculty, achieving the ultimate revenge for its refusal to endorse him.

8. UH President Dobelle will a) provide campus jobs as a haven for unemployed Democratic pols, b) announce he has no intention of running for the U.S. Senate as soon as an opening appears, but only if coach June Jones also makes that pledge, c) vow to limit himself to five new ideas a day and to give his staff the option to say of the bad ones, "that's a Mazie," d) build a swimming pool at College Hill and invite Gov. Lingle to do her laps there. (She accepts, but always shows up wearing earplugs.)

9. Hawaiian sovereignty a) fades back into the woodwork amid war, terrorism, legal challenges and a still-struggling economy, b) gets a boost when Hawaiians promise never to push for casino gambling, c) advances in Washington because of Lingle-Democratic cooperation, d) is finally embraced by President Bush as a new level of compassionate conservatism, 2004 re-election style.

10. Hawai'i's Asia-Pacific standing will be boosted when a) Lingle names aide Randy Roth our first minister of external affairs, b) North Korea threatens a missile attack on Pearl Harbor, c) the East-West Center hosts a U.N.-sponsored Korea Peace Conference, d) UH-Hilo Chancellor Rose Tseng annexes Micronesia and Taiwan to the Big Island campus.

My choices: 1 — c; 2 — b and c; 3 — b; 4 — d, at least; 5 — b; 6 — all; 7 — b; 8 — uncertain; 9 — c; 10 — c and d would be a start.

Don't like those choices? Then work for the future YOU want.