Genomics promise has yet to pay off
By Paul Elias
Associated Press
SAN FRANCISCO — Government-backed scientists will fete themselves in April during a monthlong celebration of the marvels of the human genetic code. They'll toast the much-hyped map of life, which genome researchers believe will lead to cures for diseases and greatly enrich biotech firms.
But as the National Human Genome Research Institute unveils its plans for putting the gene map to work helping humankind, it will have to forgive investors not sharing in the excitement.
The genomics revolution has indeed led to a few medical breakthroughs, but at a cost to investors of billions of dollars, with few returns.
"Understanding the human genome is expected to lead to the greatest evolution in medicine since the introduction of antibiotics," said the institute's director, Francis Collins, counseling patience for anyone seeking cures and profits.
The "genomics revolution" has led to a few medical breakthroughs since Collins' government-supported gene hunters and their archrivals at the J. Craig Venter-led Celera Genomics simultaneously unveiled their maps in June 2000.
As it turned out, those maps included much terra incognita — thousands of genes uncharted. After more hard work, the gene wizards say the code is now "substantially complete."
Already, some diagnostic tests have resulted from knowing the location and function of some of the thousands of genes buried within the mileslong strands of genetic material balled together in every human cell.
As a result, some people susceptible to breast cancer or osteoporosis are leading healthier lifestyles.
And a few companies have had success developing hardware and software that sifts through the genetic strands, most of which is useless garble, to find meaningful genes. On Thursday, IBM Corp. and deCODE Genetics Inc. of Iceland said they would jointly sell deCODE's gene-mining software to drug-makers, biotech firms and other companies in hopes of ringing up about $100 million in sales over a three-year period.
But all of this is small potatoes.
The big payoff — powerful disease-fighting medicines — has yet to materialize.
Collins and other genomic scientists still firmly believe cures can be found by slogging through the estimated 30,000 to 60,000 human genes to identify mutations that cause disease, or genes that somehow protect against illness.
But they warn it may take a decade or more to turn today's fairly crude maps of life secrets into detailed topographical charts.
Their advice comes too late for the investors who sank billions of dollars into money-losing genomics companies — many of which are dramatically altering their business plans or closing down altogether.
The 23 publicly traded genomics companies tracked by investor newsletter BioCentury dropped in value a combined 71 percent last year, making it one of the hardest-hit sectors. In comparison, the American Stock Exchange biotech index dropped 40 percent, and the Nasdaq Stock Market, 30 percent.
"There was a certain amount of excess belief that it was going to lead to instant solutions to human health," said Dr. Robert Stein, president of Incyte Corp., of decoding the human genome.
A gene-hunting pioneer based in Palo Alto, Incyte is hurriedly recasting itself as a drug maker after replacing its management team and laying off 250 workers.
Even genomics leader Celera is all but abandoning the field and attempting to remake itself as a drug maker. The company fired the flamboyant Venter and has "made a significant transformation during the last 18 months," said president Kathy Ordonez.
"Having the human genome was an incredibly crucial step," she said, but understanding what it means — and translating that knowledge into medicines — is the key to profitability.
