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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted on: Monday, January 27, 2003

SECOND OPINION
Driving force in commuting

By Cliff Slater

Doug Carlson writes (Jan. 15) that, "(Cliff) Slater's vision of transportation policy for O'ahu goes strictly by the ABCs — Always By Car ... but the rest of us should choose modern rapid transit."

First, beware of the word "should" — it is a planner's word. One used by people who want to organize our behavior according to their "vision."

Second, I am merely facing the reality that everyday people are pushing for more roads. For example, according to the latest Census, only 7 percent of O'ahu's commuters chose TheBus to get to work; 80 percent chose their cars, and they would like traffic congestion relief.

And that 7 percent market share for TheBus has declined since 1980, when TheBus then carried 10 percent of commuters. This absolute decline in daily rides of 37,000 to 34,000 is despite a growth in O'ahu's population and a 30 percent increase in the number of buses in use.

This trend is happening in virtually every city in the U.S.

From 1990 to 2000, of the 48 metropolitan areas with populations of 1 million or more, only 10 increased their public transportation market share, and that was from 4 percent to 4.4 percent average share. The market share of the other 38 declined from 4.4 percent to 3.9 percent on average. And it did not matter whether they had rail transit — light or heavy. All the biggest areas with extensive rail transit lines, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta and Pittsburgh, all lost market share heavily.

Of the 10 million new jobs created in this 10-year period, only 72,000 workers elected to take public transportation — less than 1 percent. And that is despite the billions that are "invested" annually in rail and bus operations.

And this trend is ongoing in Europe as well. Listen to Christian Gerondeau, author of the Paris Area Railway Master Plan and the 1997 book "Transport in Europe":

"As in many European countries, the official public policy in France is to reduce the use of the car. The car is considered as a nuisance, even if almost everyone chooses it whenever possible. Residents of the European countries rightly consider their leaders to be clueless about the population's preferences, which certainly includes the automobile. Planners here and abroad need to get in touch with the real world and the free choices of citizens, and stop focusing public policy on unrealistic dreams."

Our leaders fail to understand the underlying trend toward personal transportation and away from mass transportation. We are no longer the masses; we are individuals. It is a major reason why car use increases and public transportation declines. It has been a trend in place for 80 years; one would think that our public officials would get the message.

For example, in my written testimony to the city about its BRT program, I pointed out the absurdity of the city's high ridership forecasts. Honolulu has had this ongoing decline in rides per resident since 1984. At that time, Honolulu residents averaged 96 bus rides. In 2000, that had declined to 76. I said that this decline had to be explained if one is to make sense of the city's forecasts.

As for Mr. Carlson, who favors monorails, I have a book that I will lend him, "The Story of Rapid Transit." It tells us that, "The monorail promises to work wonders in the future." It was published a hundred years ago.

On the following page it says, "As to the far future of rapid transit, only the poet and the dreamer can tell us ... "

Ain't that the truth.

Cliff Slater is a regular columnist whose footnoted columns are at www.lava.net/cslater