By Tom Plate

One thing Americans can't say of troubled but yet again indispensable Pakistan: that it has been but a fair-weather friend. In truth, it's the other way around. We insist on Pakistan's friendship when — and only when — the geopolitical weather turns foul.

And now it's Pakistan time again.

Weather reports: Recall that Ronald Reagan played Pakistan for all it was worth during the chill and confrontation of the Cold War. Then, this Muslim nation was needed as a convenient comrade-in-arms against the Evil Empire. But once Moscow fell, so did U.S. concern for Pakistan.

Back to the future in South Asia: George W. Bush — Reagan's ideological successor — is again playing the chummy Pakistan card. After 9-11, Pakistan became the launching pad to fight al-Qaida — conveniently next door to Afghanistan. Islamabad did the deal in return for aid. Then the Bushies needed Pakistan to punch up the U.S. president's near-declaration of war against the ''axis of evil'' trio that includes Iran, right on Pakistan's western border: And thus more U.S. aid.

So Pakistan, over the decades, has been a convenient ally living in a "bad" neighborhood. The issue now, however, is whether Pakistan will once again — following the pattern — be discarded after the latest U.S. panic attack recedes. But a nation with 142 million Muslims — 97 percent of its population, like Iraq's — may no longer be so disposable as before.

What's more, Pakistan has a leader who appears to know how to play the geopolitical game as well as anyone.

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is a former military leader who led a coup a few years ago terminating a corrupt parliamentary government. Turns out, he may be the most charming dictator since the late Anwar Sadat of Egypt.

That was evident for all to see during his U.S. visit last week.

Musharraf — technically ''elected'' — showed up at the usual high-toned foreign-affairs venues, including two of the toniest on the West Coast.

Musharraf thus presents an interesting dilemma for the United States and India. Even a small measure of success in modernizing and democratizing Pakistan will make it more difficult for the United States to let his country go to the Muslim-extremist dogs.

Yet, a too-close Pakistan-U.S. relationship might anger rival India and roil relations that Washington has been eager to improve, especially to keep India from getting close to China. A Beijing-New Delhi axis in Asia against American Japanese interests is not what we want.

Yet the wisest U.S. policy would push forward with Pakistan nonetheless. U.S. relations with the Muslim world are at a low point. America can't afford to make enemies of Muslim states, especially those that have tried to help.

Not taking the U.S.-Pakistan relationship beyond this convenient and trendy short-term ''coalition of the willing'' friendship would add another heavy black U.S mark in the Muslim equation. By contrast, with steady U.S. support, Pakistan, despite its nuclear-tipped enmity with nuclear-tipped India over ever-contentious Kashmir, conceivably could become a true Islamic democracy.

Sure, its current experiment with federalism is fraught with problems and could blow up in Islamabad's face — literally and figuratively — should extremists seize control of the country's outer provinces. Also, its intelligence services must not be permitted to remain a secret government.

But it is just these hurdles that make Musharraf more than just a public-relations asset. He is the best shot Pakistan now has.

In the end, the general may prove to be as mediocre (and/or corrupt) as his predecessors. If not, however, the world may have found a true friend of world peace, in fair weather or foul.

Tom Plate, whose column appears regularly in The Honolulu Advertiser, is a UCLA professor and director of the nonprofit Asia Pacific Media Network. Reach him at tplate@ucla.edu. He also has a spot on the Web.