Posted on: Thursday, July 10, 2003

Japan travel forecast bleak

Associated Press

TOKYO — The number of Japanese travelers to Hawai'i during the peak summer months is expected to slide 10.2 percent to 193,000 this year because of residual worries about the war in Iraq, Japan's biggest travel agency said yesterday.

The overall number of Japanese traveling overseas during the important summer season is expected to drop 24.7 percent from last year because of lingering fears of both the war and SARS, JTB said.

The forecast for the mid-July through Aug. 31 traveling season marks the largest decline since JTB Corp. began its annual predictions of tourist traffic in 1969, company spokesman Tsuneo Nishiyama said.

A total of 1.83 million Japanese are expected to take trips abroad during the period — when school and company holidays make vacations easier to plan — down from 2.43 million in the same period last year, JTB's latest survey showed.

Nishiyama said JTB expects the trend to change later this year.

Nishiyama said Japanese are particularly cautious about touring Asia, where the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome was most serious.

Japanese visitors to Hong Kong were expected to fall 48.1 percent to 56,000, while those headed for China would likely number 170,000, a 35.1 percent decline from the same period last year, JTB said. About 66,000 Japanese were expected to visit Taiwan, down 48.1 percent, it said.

Other popular destinations, such as the mainland United States and Hawai'i — which combined account for 20 percent of all Japanese foreign holidays — are also likely to see fewer Japanese tourists because of jitters linked to the U.S.-led war in Iraq.

Travelers to the Mainland will probably fall 14.9 percent to 205,000, JTB said.

Europe is expected to have 14.6 percent fewer Japanese tourists at 275,000, while Japanese heading to Australia, New Zealand and other South Pacific islands may be about 10.1 percent fewer at 116,000, according to the survey.

Japanese travelers will spend an average $1,900 for their travel expenses per person, up 4.6 percent from $1,806 last year, the JTB survey said.

JTB polled 2,200 people nationwide in early June, and about 63.1 percent of them responded. When compiling its forecast, the agency included travel reservations made with JTB and with airlines, and considered tourism industry trends.