No relief seen for statewide drought
By Jan TenBruggencate
Advertiser Science Writer
Drought conditions are expected to continue in Hawai'i, with weather forecasters sticking to their prediction of a quiet hurricane season.
Most of the state has had far less rainfall than normal since the start of the year, and with the dry summer months well under way, it is unlikely that drought conditions will ease significantly, said Jim Weyman, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service office in Honolulu.
The latest drought information issued last week by the federal government's Climate Prediction Center lists all the islands except Kaua'i and Ni'ihau as being in a drought. The worst conditions are on the western half of the Big Island, which the center said is in a "severe drought" — the third level in a five-step drought scale that ranges from abnormal to exceptional drought conditions.
West Moloka'i, Lana'i and most of Maui are listed as moderate drought regions. The monitor lists as abnormally dry O'ahu, the eastern Big Island, and the east ends of Maui and Moloka'i.
Rainfall totals from the National Weather Service show Kealakekua in West Hawai'i with a little more than 9 inches of rain in the first six months of the year, about 26 percent of the normal amount. Rainfall at the Hilo Airport totaled nearly 33 inches, about 54 percent of normal.
On O'ahu, the rain gauge at Moanalua collected almost 16 inches of rain through the end of June, 38 percent of normal; Kahuku had almost 15 inches, or about 61 percent of normal; Kane'ohe had 9 inches, about 41 percent of the normal rainfall.
Kihei in arid South Maui saw 5 inches of rain in the first six months of the year, about half the normal rate; the Kahului Airport rainfall total was nearly 9 inches, or 79 percent of normal. Ha'iku on the windward side of the island had almost 21 inches of rain, 62 percent of normal.
Most of Kaua'i's rainfall measurements were in the range of 80 percent to 110 percent of the normal amount.
The weather service reports that current atmospheric and oceanic conditions do not support the development of so-called La Ni–a conditions that were predicted as little as a month ago. El Ni–o conditions, when ocean temperatures in the equatorial waters of the Pacific are warmer than normal, are often associated with winter drought and increased tropical storm activity in Hawai'i. La Ni–a, with its cooler ocean temperatures, does not appear to have a significant impact on storm activity or rainfall patterns.
The latest data and computer model forecasts indicate considerable uncertainty for the next several months, and Weyman said meteorologists are waiting to see what happens next. However, the majority of the forecasts indicate it is unlikely the region will re-enter the El Ni–o stage of last year.
"There is still not a clear signal," Weyman said.
He said the Honolulu weather service office will stick with its prediction of two to three tropical storms or hurricanes during the 2003 hurricane season, which runs from June to November. No tropical revolving storms have entered or formed in the Central Pacific so far this year.
Weyman said five systems have formed in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, but all have died out without moving into the Central Pacific. A sixth was expected to form within the next day or two, he said.
