Posted on: Tuesday, July 15, 2003

Volcano experts at Hilo convention push preparedness

By Mary Vorsino
Associated Press

Volcano experts from 30 countries have gathered this week in the shadow of the world's largest volcano. They are collaborating on more accurate ways of predicting the paths of lava flows and the risk to surrounding communities.

They'll also be pushing forward on how to temper the effects of volcanic eruptions and better their predictions to save lives and property.

"The thing about volcanic eruption, it's not a precise science," said Brian Yanagi, the state's civil defense earthquake-tsunami-volcano program manager.

"It's not like an ant farm where you can look in the side. You can't see lava like an ant column. It all has to be measured instrumentally."

About 500 people — half from overseas — are attending the third annual Cities on Volcanoes convention hosted at the University of Hawai'i at Hilo.

The international conference that ends Friday was first held in Rome and Naples, near Mount Vesuvius, in 1998. The convention's second meeting in 2001 was in Auckland, New Zealand, among young volcanic cones and crater clusters. Auckland and Naples are the two largest cities at the foot of active volcanoes.

Yanagi said he hopes the conference not only increases awareness within the industry, but boosts preparedness in the community.

It's been almost 20 years since Mauna Loa last erupted, sending a 16-mile lava flow toward Hilo, and residents now seem lax to the dangers of living near a volcano, he said.

"There hasn't been a destructive, widespread lava flow on this island for a fairly long period of time," Yanagi said. Only "the old timers know the eruptive history of Kilauea and Mauna Loa. The old timers know that this stuff is not just a story."

The world's largest volcano — the 13,677-foot-high Mauna Loa — began inflating at its caldera last year, a sign that probably indicates swelling of its magma reservoir. Similar swelling was observed before the past two eruptions at Mauna Loa.

Nearby Kilauea, the world's most active volcano, has been flowing for more than 20 years.

Yanagi expects to introduce hazard maps, set to be completed later this year, that show the lava flows in Mauna Loa and Kilauea and predict which nearby residential areas would be most affected by a large-scale eruption given land conditions and flow speed.

The maps will give volcano researchers and civil defense officials better guidelines on where to focus warnings, evacuation planning and lava barriers.

And they'll mean Big Island home and business owners can rate their risk of living or working in the area.

"We are going to analyze the hazards," Yanagi said. "This way we get a feel for the threat."

Peter Cervelli, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcanoes Observatory at Kilauea, plans to present to the conference a newly implemented computer system that will track the lava flows at Hawaii Volcanoes National Park with enhanced accuracy and speed.

He and fellow researcher Asta Miklius will also give an update on the erratic swelling at Mauna Loa.