State may experience buildup of military forces
By William Cole
Advertiser Military Writer
A reorganization of U.S. forces worldwide could bring a degree of military buildup to Hawai'i not seen since the Vietnam War, subsequently undoing much of the downsizing that followed the end of the Cold War.
Ambitious plans for a $1.5 billion Stryker brigade, eight C-17 cargo planes, and the possibility of an aircraft carrier strike group would re-orient some of the United States' most advanced firepower to the middle of the Pacific.
All of the additions could bring approximately 17,000 military members to O'ahu, counting their families — even more if carrier escort ships are added to Pearl Harbor.
"It's kind of interesting to look at the evolving military strategy here in Hawai'i because that mission has changed dramatically in the past 10 years," said Daniel Martinez, historian for the USS Arizona Memorial.
From a peak of 134,000 in 1988, the number of military and family members in Hawai'i in 2002 stood at 81,610, according to the Hawai'i Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism.
There were 21 surface ships based at Pearl Harbor in 1988, compared with 11 today.
These days, it's all about speed — getting to the battle faster — and departing from Hawai'i cuts a week's sailing time to Asia for an aircraft carrier. The Army's goal is to be able to deliver a Stryker brigade of eight-wheeled vehicles anywhere in the world in 96 hours.
"We're talking about a much stronger mobile force that doesn't take days or weeks to get to an area of contention, it can literally take hours," Martinez said.
Not since World War II has a carrier been based here. The Navy also is looking at basing a carrier air wing of 70 to 80 aircraft on O'ahu and adding escort ships to Pearl Harbor.
"That (a carrier for Hawai'i) would be just a hugely dramatic shift," said Patrick Garrett, a military analyst for GlobalSecurity.org, a Virginia-based think tank.
It would be a huge shift economically, as well.
Military spends big
Jim Tollefson, president of the Chamber of Commerce of Hawai'i, said the changes would add significantly to the federal and defense spending that is second only to tourism dollars, Hawai'i's biggest source of income.
Federal spending totals about $9 billion in Hawai'i, compared to $11.7 billion for tourism, according to DBEDT. State economists say a better apples-to-apples comparison is made by subtracting taxes and pensions and using $5.4 billion for final federal and defense purchases.
"It's hard to really quantify the impact (of the military additions)," Tollefson said. "(But) I think it's going to be big dollars."
No comprehensive analysis has been done, and the military so far has released little information on the economic or environmental impacts of its plans.
The chamber estimates that for every $1 billion in military expenditures in Hawai'i, a multiplier effect results in $1.8 billion in revenues to Hawai'i businesses, and the creation of 24,650 jobs — mostly in military and civilian defense, but also in business and professional services, retail, construction and health services.
Civilian employment in the military in Hawai'i fluctuated between 19,350 people in 1990 and 16,508 people in 2002.
The San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce calculated that each aircraft carrier based there has an annual economic impact of $270 million.
Of $126 million in annual payroll for a carrier crew of 3,200 — excluding an air wing — 87.8 percent, or $110 million, is spent in San Diego, said Kelly Cunningham, research director for the chamber.
Another $40 million is spent each year on Navy contracts for carrier maintenance.
An aircraft carrier and air wing of 5,500 would mean approximately 13,750 more people, including families, using a DBEDT formula of 1.5 family members for each Navy crew member.
The Army's Stryker brigade of 300 eight-wheeled vehicles is expected to mean $693 million in construction projects on O'ahu and the Big Island. The 2nd Brigade combat team of 3,500 soldiers is estimated to grow by 500 to 800 soldiers, and with families, the additional forces will represent 2,263 more people, the Army said.
The Air Force's basing plan for eight C-17 cargo carriers at Hickam and identical basing at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska was projected to cost $425 million, and result in 500 additional personnel at Hickam.
C-17s and Strykers could arrive in 2005 and 2006. Other possible military plans include basing F/A-22 Raptors, the Air Force's stealth attack jet, in Hawai'i.
Opponents to further militarization of Hawai'i are raising alarm over the plans, saying they would cost Hawai'i in more lost and polluted land, and benefit Mainland firms that would get big construction jobs.
"We're very concerned about this buildup," said Kyle Kajihiro, program director for the American Friends Service Committee, a peace and justice organization founded by the Quakers. "Already the military controls so much land here — we were looking forward to some of those lands being cleaned up and returned after the end of the Cold War. But now it looks like they're even going to take back some of those lands."
The former Barbers Point Naval Air Station — now called Kalaeloa — is being eyed as a base for a carrier air wing. The Army, meanwhile, is seeking 1,500 to 2,100 acres adjacent to Schofield Barracks, 71 acres in Kahuku, and 23,000 additional acres on the Big Island for training with Stryker vehicles.
Kajihiro reiterated the oft-stated complaint that the military needs to clean up the land it has polluted before it uses even more.
"The military here is the largest polluter," Kajihiro said. "We've identified over a thousand contaminated sites, and they've failed to clean up the ones they have attempted to remediate — such as Kaho'olawe."
Cumulative effect noted
According to a 1995 summary of land holdings, the military controlled 90,817 acres on O'ahu, 108,902 acres on the Big Island, 4,498 acres on Kaua'i, 6,693 acres on Moloka'i, and 15 acres on Maui.
Kathy Ferguson, a political science professor and director of the women's studies program at the University of Hawai'i, said the cumulative effect of the proposed military additions have to be looked at.
"When you look at a piece at a time, you think, 'Oh, good, why not?' " she said. "And then you look at the whole picture and you think, 'That's an awful lot of people, that's an awful lot of land.' "
Ferguson, the co-author of "Oh, Say, Can You See? The Semiotics of the Military in Hawai'i," said the business community talks about how much military spending goes into the local economy, but "they don't look at things like, how much of that is spent in the (post exchange). That's not the local economy."
"What about the schools?" Ferguson added. "The impact aid, a few years ago when we did our research, it was 11 percent of the cost."
The federal government pays $1,400 in impact aid per pupil for the 30,000 military or "federally connected" students in the state school system for an education that costs the state $6,775 on average.
"So there are lots of hidden costs," Ferguson said.
A 1999 Navy study found that basing a carrier at Pearl Harbor without an air wing was anticipated to bring 3,217 crew members, add 1,018 family members to the civilian labor force and 606 children to O'ahu schools, with a net impact of $32.3 million in revenues over costs for the city and state.
Bill Paty, a World War II veteran, former Waialua Sugar Co. manager, and a civilian aide to the secretary of the Army, also pointed to efforts to privatize the construction and operation of military housing, which may contribute $2.2 billion to the economy over the next 10 years.
"We are going to be looking at, I think, a major infrastructure undertaking such as we haven't seen since World War II, if all of it comes together," he said.
Paty said the Navy alternatively is looking at basing an amphibious assault ship, a vessel used to transport Marines and launch Harrier jets and helicopters, at Pearl, but "that's not as up on the screen as the carrier."
He recalled that Hawai'i was a "pass-through" and rest and relaxation spot for the many ships and troops that came from somewhere else during the Vietnam War buildup.
"This (the proposed additions) is moving the forward presence of the United States 2,000 miles to the west," he said.
Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-5459.
